Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Southern Rural

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Southern Rural indicate a 8.6% decrease in population under working age, a 40.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 5.3% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Southern Rural - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41263.91474.52774.9+152
5 to 91916.01745.33576.2+166
10 to 142678.32136.54467.8+180
15 to 192668.32297.04327.6+166
20 to 241715.31966.03025.3+131
25 to 291364.31444.42344.1+97
30 to 34932.91163.52213.9+128
35 to 391645.11604.93335.8+168
40 to 441765.51725.23696.5+194
45 to 492929.11996.13776.6+85
50 to 542608.12156.63806.6+120
55 to 592537.92818.63796.6+126
60 to 642668.32557.83756.6+109
65 to 691926.02276.93225.6+129
70 to 741584.92206.73195.6+161
75 to 791073.31604.92654.6+158
80 to 84531.71073.31963.4+143
85 and over381.2561.71312.3+94
Total persons3,208100.03,270100.05,714100.0+2,506

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 131 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 196 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 265 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 319 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 322 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 375 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 379 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 380 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 377 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 369 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 333 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 221 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 234 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 302 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 432 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 446 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 357 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 277 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 56 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 107 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 160 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 220 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 227 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 255 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 281 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 215 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 199 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 172 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 160 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 116 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 144 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 196 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 229 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 213 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 174 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 147 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 38 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 53 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 107 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 158 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 192 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 266 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 253 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 260 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 292 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 176 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 164 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 93 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 136 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 171 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 266 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 267 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 191 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 126
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 75 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 89 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 105 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 99 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 95 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 120 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 98 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 164 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 178 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 198 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 173 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 105 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 90 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 106 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 203 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 234 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 183 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 130 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 19 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 54 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 53 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 62 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 34 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: -11 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 28 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -44 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -93 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -4 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: -5 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 23 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 7 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 25 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -36 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -54 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: -17 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 21
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Southern Rural was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 9.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 62 and account for 6.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 55 to 59 years, with a total of 281 persons.

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