Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Pakenham area

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Pakenham area indicate a 30.8% increase in population under working age, a 51.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 27.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Pakenham area - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45,03610.46,1229.78,1039.2+3,067
5 to 94,1038.55,5018.77,2568.2+3,153
10 to 143,2166.74,5407.26,2527.1+3,036
15 to 192,8405.93,9636.35,7796.6+2,938
20 to 243,3416.94,2406.76,0346.8+2,694
25 to 294,1648.64,8927.76,5567.4+2,392
30 to 344,6159.65,1578.16,7987.7+2,183
35 to 393,6947.64,5957.36,1126.9+2,419
40 to 443,2146.73,9136.25,3116.0+2,097
45 to 492,8645.93,5265.64,7945.4+1,930
50 to 542,3634.93,4675.54,4505.1+2,087
55 to 591,9994.13,1204.94,2214.8+2,222
60 to 641,7313.62,5234.03,7774.3+2,045
65 to 691,6503.42,1403.43,4814.0+1,831
70 to 741,3592.81,9083.03,0803.5+1,721
75 to 799201.91,6492.62,4762.8+1,556
80 to 846221.31,1011.71,7652.0+1,143
85 and over5891.29651.51,8512.1+1,262
Total persons48,318100.063,320100.088,095100.0+39,777

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 1,851 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 1,765 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 2,476 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 3,080 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 3,481 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 3,777 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 4,221 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 4,450 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 4,794 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 5,311 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 6,112 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 6,798 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 6,556 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 6,034 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 5,779 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 6,252 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 7,256 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 8,103 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 965 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 1,101 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 1,649 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 1,908 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 2,140 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 2,523 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 3,120 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 3,467 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 3,526 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 3,913 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 4,595 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 5,157 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 4,892 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 4,240 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 3,963 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 4,540 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 5,501 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 6,122 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 589 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 622 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 920 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 1,359 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 1,650 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 1,731 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 1,999 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 2,363 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 2,864 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 3,214 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 3,694 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 4,615 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 4,164 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 3,341 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 2,840 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 3,216 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 4,103 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 5,036
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 885 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 664 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 827 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 1,172 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 1,341 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 1,253 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 1,101 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 983 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 1,268 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 1,398 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 1,518 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 1,641 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 1,664 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 1,795 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 1,816 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 1,712 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 1,756 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 1,981 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 377 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 479 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 729 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 549 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 490 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 792 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 1,121 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 1,104 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 662 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 699 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 901 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 542 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 728 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 899 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 1,123 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 1,325 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 1,398 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 1,086
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Pakenham area was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 10.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 5 to 9, which is expected to increase by 1,398 and account for 8.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 6,122 persons.

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