Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Shire

Components of population change

The greatest population change for Cardinia Shire is forecast for the period from 2017 to 2021, which is expected to have a net increase of 28,575 people.

There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population.

Components of population change
Cardinia ShireForecast period
Component2017 to 20212022 to 20262027 to 20312032 to 20362037 to 2041
Births8,96611,52513,55414,92615,145
Deaths2,9023,5824,2714,8455,225
Natural increase/decrease6,0647,9439,28410,0819,920
Net migration22,35720,42815,4275,399-5,206
Change in persons in non-private dwellings15518622430266

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Forecast population change
Forecast population change 2041 forecast population change: 505 2040 forecast population change: 780 2039 forecast population change: 863 2038 forecast population change: 1,088 2037 forecast population change: 1,544 2036 forecast population change: 2,179 2035 forecast population change: 2,922 2034 forecast population change: 3,220 2033 forecast population change: 3,541 2032 forecast population change: 3,920 2031 forecast population change: 4,383 2030 forecast population change: 4,678 2029 forecast population change: 4,972 2028 forecast population change: 5,277 2027 forecast population change: 5,624 2026 forecast population change: 5,558 2025 forecast population change: 5,617 2024 forecast population change: 5,866 2023 forecast population change: 5,866 2022 forecast population change: 5,651 2021 forecast population change: 5,624 2020 forecast population change: 6,547 2019 forecast population change: 6,863 2018 forecast population change: 5,002 2017 forecast population change: 4,539
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease 2041 Natural increase: 1,939 2040 Natural increase: 1,958 2039 Natural increase: 1,985 2038 Natural increase: 2,010 2037 Natural increase: 2,029 2036 Natural increase: 2,039 2035 Natural increase: 2,036 2034 Natural increase: 2,023 2033 Natural increase: 2,005 2032 Natural increase: 1,979 2031 Natural increase: 1,945 2030 Natural increase: 1,909 2029 Natural increase: 1,863 2028 Natural increase: 1,812 2027 Natural increase: 1,754 2026 Natural increase: 1,702 2025 Natural increase: 1,653 2024 Natural increase: 1,592 2023 Natural increase: 1,530 2022 Natural increase: 1,467 2021 Natural increase: 1,401 2020 Natural increase: 1,305 2019 Natural increase: 1,197 2018 Natural increase: 1,113 2017 Natural increase: 1,048 2041 Total deaths: 1,066 2040 Total deaths: 1,056 2039 Total deaths: 1,045 2038 Total deaths: 1,035 2037 Total deaths: 1,023 2036 Total deaths: 1,006 2035 Total deaths: 990 2034 Total deaths: 970 2033 Total deaths: 950 2032 Total deaths: 929 2031 Total deaths: 905 2030 Total deaths: 881 2029 Total deaths: 855 2028 Total deaths: 829 2027 Total deaths: 800 2026 Total deaths: 772 2025 Total deaths: 744 2024 Total deaths: 717 2023 Total deaths: 687 2022 Total deaths: 662 2021 Total deaths: 634 2020 Total deaths: 605 2019 Total deaths: 571 2018 Total deaths: 555 2017 Total deaths: 536 2041 Total births: 3,005 2040 Total births: 3,014 2039 Total births: 3,030 2038 Total births: 3,045 2037 Total births: 3,051 2036 Total births: 3,045 2035 Total births: 3,025 2034 Total births: 2,993 2033 Total births: 2,955 2032 Total births: 2,907 2031 Total births: 2,851 2030 Total births: 2,791 2029 Total births: 2,719 2028 Total births: 2,641 2027 Total births: 2,554 2026 Total births: 2,475 2025 Total births: 2,397 2024 Total births: 2,308 2023 Total births: 2,217 2022 Total births: 2,129 2021 Total births: 2,036 2020 Total births: 1,910 2019 Total births: 1,769 2018 Total births: 1,668 2017 Total births: 1,583 2041 Natural increase: 1,939 2040 Natural increase: 1,958 2039 Natural increase: 1,985 2038 Natural increase: 2,010 2037 Natural increase: 2,029 2036 Natural increase: 2,039 2035 Natural increase: 2,036 2034 Natural increase: 2,023 2033 Natural increase: 2,005 2032 Natural increase: 1,979 2031 Natural increase: 1,945 2030 Natural increase: 1,909 2029 Natural increase: 1,863 2028 Natural increase: 1,812 2027 Natural increase: 1,754 2026 Natural increase: 1,702 2025 Natural increase: 1,653 2024 Natural increase: 1,592 2023 Natural increase: 1,530 2022 Natural increase: 1,467 2021 Natural increase: 1,401 2020 Natural increase: 1,305 2019 Natural increase: 1,197 2018 Natural increase: 1,113 2017 Natural increase: 1,048 2041 Total deaths: 1,066 2040 Total deaths: 1,056 2039 Total deaths: 1,045 2038 Total deaths: 1,035 2037 Total deaths: 1,023 2036 Total deaths: 1,006 2035 Total deaths: 990 2034 Total deaths: 970 2033 Total deaths: 950 2032 Total deaths: 929 2031 Total deaths: 905 2030 Total deaths: 881 2029 Total deaths: 855 2028 Total deaths: 829 2027 Total deaths: 800 2026 Total deaths: 772 2025 Total deaths: 744 2024 Total deaths: 717 2023 Total deaths: 687 2022 Total deaths: 662 2021 Total deaths: 634 2020 Total deaths: 605 2019 Total deaths: 571 2018 Total deaths: 555 2017 Total deaths: 536 2041 Total births: 3,005 2040 Total births: 3,014 2039 Total births: 3,030 2038 Total births: 3,045 2037 Total births: 3,051 2036 Total births: 3,045 2035 Total births: 3,025 2034 Total births: 2,993 2033 Total births: 2,955 2032 Total births: 2,907 2031 Total births: 2,851 2030 Total births: 2,791 2029 Total births: 2,719 2028 Total births: 2,641 2027 Total births: 2,554 2026 Total births: 2,475 2025 Total births: 2,397 2024 Total births: 2,308 2023 Total births: 2,217 2022 Total births: 2,129 2021 Total births: 2,036 2020 Total births: 1,910 2019 Total births: 1,769 2018 Total births: 1,668 2017 Total births: 1,583
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
Forecast in, out and net migration
Forecast in, out and net migration 2041 Total net migration: -1,433 2040 Total net migration: -1,244 2039 Total net migration: -1,122 2038 Total net migration: -922 2037 Total net migration: -485 2036 Total net migration: 80 2035 Total net migration: 644 2034 Total net migration: 1,196 2033 Total net migration: 1,536 2032 Total net migration: 1,942 2031 Total net migration: 2,390 2030 Total net migration: 2,592 2029 Total net migration: 3,109 2028 Total net migration: 3,465 2027 Total net migration: 3,870 2026 Total net migration: 3,816 2025 Total net migration: 3,870 2024 Total net migration: 4,274 2023 Total net migration: 4,336 2022 Total net migration: 4,132 2021 Total net migration: 4,203 2020 Total net migration: 5,169 2019 Total net migration: 5,604 2018 Total net migration: 3,889 2017 Total net migration: 3,492 2041 Total out migration: 18,440 2040 Total out migration: 18,408 2039 Total out migration: 18,367 2038 Total out migration: 18,305 2037 Total out migration: 18,195 2036 Total out migration: 18,023 2035 Total out migration: 17,793 2034 Total out migration: 17,502 2033 Total out migration: 17,179 2032 Total out migration: 16,809 2031 Total out migration: 16,402 2030 Total out migration: 15,986 2029 Total out migration: 15,519 2028 Total out migration: 15,022 2027 Total out migration: 14,497 2026 Total out migration: 13,992 2025 Total out migration: 13,487 2024 Total out migration: 12,940 2023 Total out migration: 12,400 2022 Total out migration: 11,903 2021 Total out migration: 11,367 2020 Total out migration: 10,742 2019 Total out migration: 10,109 2018 Total out migration: 9,605 2017 Total out migration: 9,198 2041 Total in migration: 17,006 2040 Total in migration: 17,164 2039 Total in migration: 17,245 2038 Total in migration: 17,383 2037 Total in migration: 17,710 2036 Total in migration: 18,104 2035 Total in migration: 18,437 2034 Total in migration: 18,698 2033 Total in migration: 18,715 2032 Total in migration: 18,751 2031 Total in migration: 18,792 2030 Total in migration: 18,579 2029 Total in migration: 18,628 2028 Total in migration: 18,487 2027 Total in migration: 18,367 2026 Total in migration: 17,807 2025 Total in migration: 17,357 2024 Total in migration: 17,213 2023 Total in migration: 16,737 2022 Total in migration: 16,035 2021 Total in migration: 15,570 2020 Total in migration: 15,911 2019 Total in migration: 15,714 2018 Total in migration: 13,494 2017 Total in migration: 12,690 2041 Total net migration: -1,433 2040 Total net migration: -1,244 2039 Total net migration: -1,122 2038 Total net migration: -922 2037 Total net migration: -485 2036 Total net migration: 80 2035 Total net migration: 644 2034 Total net migration: 1,196 2033 Total net migration: 1,536 2032 Total net migration: 1,942 2031 Total net migration: 2,390 2030 Total net migration: 2,592 2029 Total net migration: 3,109 2028 Total net migration: 3,465 2027 Total net migration: 3,870 2026 Total net migration: 3,816 2025 Total net migration: 3,870 2024 Total net migration: 4,274 2023 Total net migration: 4,336 2022 Total net migration: 4,132 2021 Total net migration: 4,203 2020 Total net migration: 5,169 2019 Total net migration: 5,604 2018 Total net migration: 3,889 2017 Total net migration: 3,492 2041 Total out migration: 18,440 2040 Total out migration: 18,408 2039 Total out migration: 18,367 2038 Total out migration: 18,305 2037 Total out migration: 18,195 2036 Total out migration: 18,023 2035 Total out migration: 17,793 2034 Total out migration: 17,502 2033 Total out migration: 17,179 2032 Total out migration: 16,809 2031 Total out migration: 16,402 2030 Total out migration: 15,986 2029 Total out migration: 15,519 2028 Total out migration: 15,022 2027 Total out migration: 14,497 2026 Total out migration: 13,992 2025 Total out migration: 13,487 2024 Total out migration: 12,940 2023 Total out migration: 12,400 2022 Total out migration: 11,903 2021 Total out migration: 11,367 2020 Total out migration: 10,742 2019 Total out migration: 10,109 2018 Total out migration: 9,605 2017 Total out migration: 9,198 2041 Total in migration: 17,006 2040 Total in migration: 17,164 2039 Total in migration: 17,245 2038 Total in migration: 17,383 2037 Total in migration: 17,710 2036 Total in migration: 18,104 2035 Total in migration: 18,437 2034 Total in migration: 18,698 2033 Total in migration: 18,715 2032 Total in migration: 18,751 2031 Total in migration: 18,792 2030 Total in migration: 18,579 2029 Total in migration: 18,628 2028 Total in migration: 18,487 2027 Total in migration: 18,367 2026 Total in migration: 17,807 2025 Total in migration: 17,357 2024 Total in migration: 17,213 2023 Total in migration: 16,737 2022 Total in migration: 16,035 2021 Total in migration: 15,570 2020 Total in migration: 15,911 2019 Total in migration: 15,714 2018 Total in migration: 13,494 2017 Total in migration: 12,690
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
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