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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Pakenham Precinct

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Pakenham Precinct indicate a 36.3% increase in population under working age, a 30.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 30.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Pakenham Precinct is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Pakenham Precinct - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43,44310.13,9948.94,3198.3+875
5 to 92,8278.34,0068.94,2978.3+1,470
10 to 142,2496.63,6128.03,9197.6+1,670
15 to 191,9255.72,9406.53,5416.8+1,616
20 to 242,3797.02,8306.33,4206.6+1,041
25 to 292,8938.53,3407.43,7417.2+848
30 to 343,0779.03,6868.23,9747.7+897
35 to 392,4827.33,4677.73,7617.2+1,279
40 to 442,1836.43,0646.83,4056.6+1,222
45 to 492,0095.92,5065.63,0495.9+1,039
50 to 541,7075.02,2905.12,7405.3+1,034
55 to 591,4304.22,0604.62,4584.7+1,028
60 to 641,2573.71,6743.72,0794.0+822
65 to 691,2403.61,4193.21,8393.5+600
70 to 741,0653.11,2652.81,6353.2+570
75 to 797692.31,1382.51,3762.7+607
80 to 845401.68181.81,0532.0+513
85 and over5311.67801.71,2832.5+752
Total persons34,006100.044,888100.051,889100.0+17,883
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Pakenham Precinct was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 10.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 10 to 14, which is expected to increase by 1,363 and account for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 4,006 persons.

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