Drivers of population change
Cardinia Shire is a relatively rural municipality on Melbourne's south-eastern fringe. The rural areas to the north boast significant amounts of intensive horticulture, natural heritage areas, as well as semi-rural and rural-residential living, while rural areas to the south also feature a broad range of horticultural activities and dairy production. The central areas of the Shire are more diverse, featuring a mixture of residential and agricultural activities, with some commercial and industrial activities in Pakenham township. Cardinia Shire has increased significantly in population over the last twenty years, with growth around Pakenham and in the north of the Shire around Emerald and Cockatoo.
Migration patternsThe primary housing market role that the Shire played over this period was to provide affordable home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne. After a number of decades of more incremental growth, the importance of the Shire within the south-eastern suburban housing market of Melbourne is set to increase dramatically. This is based predominantly on two factors. The first factor is the declining amount of easily developable 'greenfield' land in the Casey to the west, where residential development opportunities in the Narre Warren South-Berwick area have been predominantly exploited. The second factor is the significant demand for new housing from new young families and couples from within Casey, as well as areas to the west, such as Dandenong, Keysborough and Rowville. This is based on the fact that many of these areas developed in the 1970s and 1980s, with strong demand from children who grew up in these areas who are now forming their own households. In addition, the City of Greater Dandenong is a major 'port' for overseas migrants, some of whom would be expected to settle within Cardinia over the coming decades. It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the Shire of Cardinia from the west, while the maturing of families within the Shire, notably in Pakenham and areas to the north, such as Emerald, should provide additional demand, as children leave home to form households of their own within the Shire. By the end of the forecast period, it is expected that Cardinia will start to provide a significant share of its own demand as this process extends to children who have grown up in the new subdivisions of Officer, Beaconsfield and Pakenham. The strong net flows from west to east into the Shire should be maintained over the 2011-2036 period, but policy and developer intentions will in part determine whether there will be some flows from Pakenham back toward Officer.
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.