Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Cardinia Shire indicate a 73.3% increase in population under working age, a 55.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 53.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Cardinia Shire - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 48,3858.613,6548.815,8727.9+7,487
5 to 97,6207.813,7988.916,7428.4+9,122
10 to 146,8367.012,1377.815,7867.9+8,950
15 to 196,4686.69,8136.314,0527.0+7,585
20 to 246,4396.69,2776.012,3976.2+5,959
25 to 297,1147.311,0607.112,6326.3+5,518
30 to 347,5617.712,6968.214,1827.1+6,621
35 to 396,7506.912,5948.114,9517.5+8,201
40 to 446,8307.011,1267.214,7017.3+7,872
45 to 496,6936.99,2886.013,3506.7+6,656
50 to 545,9786.18,3785.411,6685.8+5,690
55 to 595,3605.57,3154.710,0615.0+4,701
60 to 644,3954.56,1984.08,3744.2+3,979
65 to 693,9964.15,2933.47,1493.6+3,152
70 to 742,9323.04,2872.86,1333.1+3,200
75 to 791,9072.03,5012.34,9712.5+3,064
80 to 841,1841.22,2531.53,6421.8+2,457
85 and over1,1621.22,0711.33,5751.8+2,413
Total persons97,608100.0154,741100.0200,238100.0+102,630

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 3,575 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 3,642 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 4,971 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 6,133 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 7,149 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 8,374 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 10,061 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 11,668 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 13,350 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 14,701 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 14,951 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 14,182 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 12,632 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 12,397 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 14,052 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 15,786 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 16,742 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 15,872 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 2,071 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 2,253 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 3,501 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 4,287 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 5,293 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 6,198 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 7,315 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 8,378 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 9,288 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 11,126 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 12,594 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 12,696 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 11,060 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 9,277 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 9,813 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 12,137 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 13,798 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 13,654 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 1,162 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 1,184 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 1,907 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 2,932 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 3,996 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 4,395 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 5,360 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 5,978 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 6,693 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 6,830 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 6,750 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 7,561 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 7,114 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 6,439 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 6,468 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 6,836 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 7,620 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 8,385
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 1,504 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 1,388 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 1,469 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 1,845 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 1,855 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 2,175 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 2,745 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 3,290 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 4,061 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 3,575 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 2,357 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 1,486 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 1,572 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 3,120 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 4,239 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 3,649 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 2,944 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 2,218 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 909 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 1,069 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 1,594 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 1,355 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 1,297 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 1,804 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 1,956 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 2,401 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 2,595 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 4,297 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 5,844 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 5,135 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 3,946 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 2,838 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 3,345 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 5,302 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 6,178 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 5,269
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Cardinia Shire was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 5 to 9, which is expected to increase by 6,178 and account for 8.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 13,798 persons.

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