Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Cardinia Shire indicate a 74.3% increase in population under working age, a 57.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 54.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Cardinia Shire - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 8,3948.614,8249.516,7748.4+8,381
5 to 9 7,6207.813,6068.716,2068.2+8,586
10 to 14 6,8477.011,4117.314,8727.5+8,024
15 to 19 6,4646.69,8206.313,6976.9+7,232
20 to 24 6,4496.69,9146.412,8286.5+6,379
25 to 29 7,1147.311,5907.412,9516.5+5,837
30 to 34 7,5667.812,7068.213,8046.9+6,238
35 to 39 6,7386.911,8307.613,6806.9+6,942
40 to 44 6,8317.010,3676.713,1966.6+6,365
45 to 49 6,6996.99,2405.912,4476.3+5,748
50 to 54 5,9866.18,6625.611,3075.7+5,321
55 to 59 5,3395.57,6584.910,2005.1+4,861
60 to 64 4,3954.56,4134.18,9334.5+4,538
65 to 69 3,9864.15,3703.57,9064.0+3,919
70 to 74 2,9453.04,4182.86,8193.4+3,874
75 to 79 1,9262.03,6212.35,3982.7+3,472
80 to 84 1,1781.22,2481.43,7661.9+2,588
85 and over1,1481.21,9581.33,8431.9+2,695
Total persons97,625100.0155,657100.0198,626100.0+101,000

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 3,843 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 3,766 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 5,398 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 6,819 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 7,906 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 8,933 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 10,200 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 11,307 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 12,447 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 13,196 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 13,680 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 13,804 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 12,951 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 12,828 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 13,697 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 14,872 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 16,206 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 16,774 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,958 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 2,248 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 3,621 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 4,418 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 5,370 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 6,413 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 7,658 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 8,662 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 9,240 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 10,367 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 11,830 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 12,706 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 11,590 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 9,914 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 9,820 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 11,411 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 13,606 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 14,824 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 1,148 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 1,178 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 1,926 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 2,945 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 3,986 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 4,395 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 5,339 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 5,986 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 6,699 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 6,831 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 6,738 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 7,566 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 7,114 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 6,449 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 6,464 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 6,847 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 7,620 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 8,394
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 1,885 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 1,518 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 1,776 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 2,401 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 2,535 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 2,519 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 2,542 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 2,644 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 3,207 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 2,829 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 1,850 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 1,098 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 1,361 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 2,914 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 3,876 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 3,461 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 2,600 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 1,951 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 810 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 1,070 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 1,695 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 1,473 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 1,384 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 2,019 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 2,319 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 2,676 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 2,541 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 3,536 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 5,091 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 5,140 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 4,476 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 3,465 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 3,356 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 4,564 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 5,986 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 6,430
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Cardinia Shire was ages 0 to 4 , which accounted for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4 , which is expected to increase by 6,430 and account for 9.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 14,824 persons.

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