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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Cardinia Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Cardinia Shire indicate a 21.3% increase in population under working age, a 30.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 20.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Cardinia Shire - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49,3687.812,1418.413,3547.3+3,986
5 to 99,4847.910,9627.513,4057.3+3,921
10 to 148,5187.110,1097.012,5336.9+4,016
15 to 197,3636.28,8966.111,2096.1+3,847
20 to 247,2396.18,9406.210,6985.9+3,459
25 to 298,9027.410,7887.412,1516.6+3,249
30 to 3410,2348.612,1308.413,3037.3+3,069
35 to 399,7398.111,7978.113,0987.2+3,360
40 to 447,9126.610,2497.111,9946.6+4,082
45 to 497,6086.48,7376.011,5436.3+3,935
50 to 546,9115.87,9835.510,6295.8+3,718
55 to 596,1735.27,1504.99,6395.3+3,466
60 to 645,4574.66,3574.48,4484.6+2,991
65 to 694,5003.85,7023.97,9444.3+3,443
70 to 744,0533.44,7653.37,5374.1+3,483
75 to 792,8482.43,9742.76,6843.7+3,836
80 to 841,7241.42,4451.74,7412.6+3,018
85 and over1,4771.22,1411.53,9232.1+2,446
Total persons119,510100.0145,265100.0182,833100.0+63,323
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Cardinia Shire was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 2,773 and account for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 12,141 persons.

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