Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Shire

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Cardinia Shire will increase by an average of 1,437 dwellings per annum to 71,241 in 2041.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Cardinia Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2016 to 2041
Cardinia ShireChange in dwellings between 2016 and 2041
Areanumber%
Cardinia Shire+35,916+101.7
Beaconsfield Precinct+771+53.1
Beaconsfield Upper & District+97+6.7
Bunyip+686+74.5
Cardinia Road Employment+2,008+62319.0
Cardinia Road Precinct+4,598+75.6
Cockatoo - Nangana+202+12.3
Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek+275+10.6
Garfield+612+90.1
Gembrook+223+25.9
Koo Wee Rup+1,191+89.2
Lang Lang+652+103.6
Nar Nar Goon - Tynong area+268+48.2
Northern Rural+241+18.4
Officer Precinct+10,228+692.2
Pakenham Balance+50+12.5
Pakenham East Precinct+7,211+20102.0
Pakenham Precinct+6,374+50.2
Southern Rural+229+19.1
Cardinia Road East+2,001+44.2
Cardinia Road West+2,597+167.2
Pakenham Central+2,960+269.6
Pakenham North East+1,602+56.1
Pakenham North West+1,133+25.2
Pakenham South West+679+16.0

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2041 Total dwellings: 71,241 2040 Total dwellings: 70,853 2039 Total dwellings: 70,410 2038 Total dwellings: 69,922 2037 Total dwellings: 69,359 2036 Total dwellings: 68,666 2035 Total dwellings: 67,805 2034 Total dwellings: 66,779 2033 Total dwellings: 65,598 2032 Total dwellings: 64,323 2031 Total dwellings: 62,934 2030 Total dwellings: 61,436 2029 Total dwellings: 59,881 2028 Total dwellings: 58,181 2027 Total dwellings: 56,378 2026 Total dwellings: 54,474 2025 Total dwellings: 52,570 2024 Total dwellings: 50,670 2023 Total dwellings: 48,664 2022 Total dwellings: 46,658 2021 Total dwellings: 44,746 2020 Total dwellings: 42,891 2019 Total dwellings: 40,926 2018 Total dwellings: 38,982 2017 Total dwellings: 37,027 2041 Total dwellings: 71,241 2040 Total dwellings: 70,853 2039 Total dwellings: 70,410 2038 Total dwellings: 69,922 2037 Total dwellings: 69,359 2036 Total dwellings: 68,666 2035 Total dwellings: 67,805 2034 Total dwellings: 66,779 2033 Total dwellings: 65,598 2032 Total dwellings: 64,323 2031 Total dwellings: 62,934 2030 Total dwellings: 61,436 2029 Total dwellings: 59,881 2028 Total dwellings: 58,181 2027 Total dwellings: 56,378 2026 Total dwellings: 54,474 2025 Total dwellings: 52,570 2024 Total dwellings: 50,670 2023 Total dwellings: 48,664 2022 Total dwellings: 46,658 2021 Total dwellings: 44,746 2020 Total dwellings: 42,891 2019 Total dwellings: 40,926 2018 Total dwellings: 38,982 2017 Total dwellings: 37,027 2041 Forecast development: 388 2040 Forecast development: 443 2039 Forecast development: 488 2038 Forecast development: 563 2037 Forecast development: 693 2036 Forecast development: 861 2035 Forecast development: 1,026 2034 Forecast development: 1,181 2033 Forecast development: 1,275 2032 Forecast development: 1,389 2031 Forecast development: 1,498 2030 Forecast development: 1,555 2029 Forecast development: 1,700 2028 Forecast development: 1,803 2027 Forecast development: 1,904 2026 Forecast development: 1,904 2025 Forecast development: 1,900 2024 Forecast development: 2,006 2023 Forecast development: 2,006 2022 Forecast development: 1,912 2021 Forecast development: 1,855 2020 Forecast development: 1,965 2019 Forecast development: 1,944 2018 Forecast development: 1,955 2017 Forecast development: 1,702
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
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