Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Shire

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Cardinia Shire will increase by an average of 1,437 dwellings per annum to 71,243 in 2041.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Cardinia Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2016 to 2041
Cardinia ShireChange in dwellings between 2016 and 2041
Areanumber%
Cardinia Shire+35,918+101.7
Beaconsfield Precinct+780+53.7
Beaconsfield Upper & District+97+6.7
Bunyip+686+74.5
Cardinia Road Employment+2,008+62319.0
Cardinia Road Precinct+4,608+75.8
Cockatoo - Nangana+202+12.3
Emerald - Clematis - Avonsleigh - Menzies Creek+275+10.6
Garfield+613+90.3
Gembrook+223+25.9
Koo Wee Rup+1,193+89.3
Lang Lang+646+102.7
Nar Nar Goon - Tynong area+278+50.0
Northern Rural+241+18.4
Officer Precinct+10,280+695.7
Pakenham Balance+50+12.5
Pakenham East Precinct+6,628+18476.8
Pakenham Precinct+6,131+48.3
Southern Rural+979+81.6

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2041 Total dwellings: 71,243 2040 Total dwellings: 70,820 2039 Total dwellings: 70,322 2038 Total dwellings: 69,759 2037 Total dwellings: 69,108 2036 Total dwellings: 68,331 2035 Total dwellings: 67,419 2034 Total dwellings: 66,380 2033 Total dwellings: 65,258 2032 Total dwellings: 63,995 2031 Total dwellings: 62,619 2030 Total dwellings: 61,169 2029 Total dwellings: 59,652 2028 Total dwellings: 58,088 2027 Total dwellings: 56,448 2026 Total dwellings: 54,713 2025 Total dwellings: 52,962 2024 Total dwellings: 51,101 2023 Total dwellings: 49,205 2022 Total dwellings: 47,221 2021 Total dwellings: 45,247 2020 Total dwellings: 43,238 2019 Total dwellings: 41,176 2018 Total dwellings: 39,118 2017 Total dwellings: 37,167 2041 Total dwellings: 71,243 2040 Total dwellings: 70,820 2039 Total dwellings: 70,322 2038 Total dwellings: 69,759 2037 Total dwellings: 69,108 2036 Total dwellings: 68,331 2035 Total dwellings: 67,419 2034 Total dwellings: 66,380 2033 Total dwellings: 65,258 2032 Total dwellings: 63,995 2031 Total dwellings: 62,619 2030 Total dwellings: 61,169 2029 Total dwellings: 59,652 2028 Total dwellings: 58,088 2027 Total dwellings: 56,448 2026 Total dwellings: 54,713 2025 Total dwellings: 52,962 2024 Total dwellings: 51,101 2023 Total dwellings: 49,205 2022 Total dwellings: 47,221 2021 Total dwellings: 45,247 2020 Total dwellings: 43,238 2019 Total dwellings: 41,176 2018 Total dwellings: 39,118 2017 Total dwellings: 37,167 2041 Forecast development: 423 2040 Forecast development: 498 2039 Forecast development: 563 2038 Forecast development: 651 2037 Forecast development: 777 2036 Forecast development: 912 2035 Forecast development: 1,039 2034 Forecast development: 1,122 2033 Forecast development: 1,263 2032 Forecast development: 1,376 2031 Forecast development: 1,450 2030 Forecast development: 1,517 2029 Forecast development: 1,564 2028 Forecast development: 1,640 2027 Forecast development: 1,735 2026 Forecast development: 1,751 2025 Forecast development: 1,861 2024 Forecast development: 1,896 2023 Forecast development: 1,984 2022 Forecast development: 1,974 2021 Forecast development: 2,009 2020 Forecast development: 2,062 2019 Forecast development: 2,058 2018 Forecast development: 1,951 2017 Forecast development: 1,842
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
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