Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Garfield

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Garfield indicate a 61.4% increase in population under working age, a 49.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 39.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Garfield - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41458.02368.92868.3+141
5 to 91317.22208.32778.0+146
10 to 141236.81887.12497.2+126
15 to 191216.71545.82176.3+96
20 to 241015.51325.01855.4+84
25 to 29955.21606.02015.8+106
30 to 341045.71927.22356.8+131
35 to 391136.22077.82607.5+147
40 to 441297.11806.82366.9+108
45 to 491075.91375.21995.8+93
50 to 541397.61294.91815.2+41
55 to 591407.71365.11835.3+43
60 to 64814.51545.81674.8+86
65 to 691186.51455.51654.8+47
70 to 74945.21023.81464.2+52
75 to 79543.0963.61263.7+72
80 to 84110.6511.9792.3+68
85 and over100.6361.4541.6+44
Total persons1,818100.02,654100.03,448100.0+1,629

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 54 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 79 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 126 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 146 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 165 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 167 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 183 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 181 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 199 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 236 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 260 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 235 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 201 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 185 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 217 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 249 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 277 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 286 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 36 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 51 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 96 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 102 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 145 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 154 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 136 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 129 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 137 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 180 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 207 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 192 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 160 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 132 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 154 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 188 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 220 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 236 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 10 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 11 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 54 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 94 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 118 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 81 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 140 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 139 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 107 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 129 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 113 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 104 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 95 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 101 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 121 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 123 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 131 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 145
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 18 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 27 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 31 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 44 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 20 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 13 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 47 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 51 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 62 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 56 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 53 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 44 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 42 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 53 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 63 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 61 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 58 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 50 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 26 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 40 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 41 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 7 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 27 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 73 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -4 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -10 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 30 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 51 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 94 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 87 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 65 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 32 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 33 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 65 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 88 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 91
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Garfield was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 94 and account for 7.8% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 236 persons.

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