Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Garfield

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Garfield indicate a 55.7% increase in population under working age, a 44.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 44.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Garfield - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41317.21997.42396.9+109
5 to 91387.62178.12667.7+128
10 to 141337.32107.82637.6+129
15 to 191236.71746.52336.8+110
20 to 241025.61445.41915.6+89
25 to 29945.21575.81945.6+100
30 to 341005.51806.72176.3+117
35 to 391015.61977.42427.0+141
40 to 441246.81917.12427.0+118
45 to 491156.31575.82196.4+104
50 to 541437.81465.41975.7+55
55 to 591447.91495.51975.7+53
60 to 64975.31616.01765.1+79
65 to 691005.51435.31684.9+68
70 to 74844.6913.41374.0+53
75 to 79492.7772.91233.6+74
80 to 84170.9532.0822.4+65
85 and over291.6391.5571.7+28
Total persons1,825100.02,684100.03,445100.0+1,620

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 57 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 82 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 123 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 137 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 168 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 176 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 197 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 197 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 219 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 242 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 242 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 217 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 194 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 191 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 233 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 263 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 266 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 239 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 39 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 53 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 77 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 91 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 143 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 161 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 149 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 146 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 157 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 191 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 197 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 180 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 157 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 144 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 174 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 210 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 217 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 199 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 29 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 17 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 49 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 84 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 100 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 97 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 144 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 143 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 115 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 124 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 101 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 100 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 94 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 102 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 123 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 133 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 138 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 131
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 18 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 29 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 46 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 46 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 25 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 15 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 48 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 51 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 62 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 51 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 45 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 37 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 38 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 47 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 59 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 53 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 50 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 40 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 10 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 36 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 27 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 7 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 43 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 64 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 5 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 3 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 42 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 67 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 96 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 80 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 62 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 42 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 51 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 77 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 78 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 69
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Garfield was ages 55 to 59, which accounted for 7.9% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 96 and account for 7.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 217 persons.

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