Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Cardinia Shire

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Cardinia Shire is 0-4 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2021 to 2026.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Cardinia Shire depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Substantial new housing opportunities across the Shire, especially in the growth corridor areas (Pakenham, Officer and to a lesser extent Beaconsfield), which are expected to attract predominantly young couples, young and maturing families
  • The loss of young adults leaving home is expected in many areas, as the trend of young adults leaving rural areas to find employment and education opportunities elsewhere continues
  • Strong migration gain to Cardinia Shire is expected across the 2016-2041 period
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2031: 424 Persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2031: -32 Persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2031: -8 Persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2031: 41 Persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2031: -16 Persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2031: -97 Persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2031: -165 Persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2031: 228 Persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2031: 405 Persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2031: 285 Persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2031: 1,327 Persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2031: 2,869 Persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2031: 3,515 Persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2031: 1,867 Persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2031: -58 Persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2031: 96 Persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2031: 1,234 Persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2031: 3,513 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 457 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 53 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: 15 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: 86 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 66 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 90 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 67 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 454 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 899 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 908 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 1,738 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 3,079 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 3,586 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 2,172 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 489 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 785 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 1,837 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 3,648 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 405 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: 111 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: 79 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: 53 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: 101 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 220 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 187 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: 551 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: 891 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 1,244 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 2,157 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 3,291 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: 3,293 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: 2,036 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: 781 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 1,293 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: 2,202 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 3,464 Persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2031: 424 Persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2031: -32 Persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2031: -8 Persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2031: 41 Persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2031: -16 Persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2031: -97 Persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2031: -165 Persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2031: 228 Persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2031: 405 Persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2031: 285 Persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2031: 1,327 Persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2031: 2,869 Persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2031: 3,515 Persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2031: 1,867 Persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2031: -58 Persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2031: 96 Persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2031: 1,234 Persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2031: 3,513 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 457 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: 53 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: 15 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: 86 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 66 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 90 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 67 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: 454 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 899 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 908 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 1,738 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 3,079 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 3,586 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: 2,172 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: 489 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 785 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 1,837 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 3,648 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 405 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: 111 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: 79 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: 53 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: 101 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 220 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 187 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: 551 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: 891 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 1,244 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 2,157 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 3,291 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: 3,293 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: 2,036 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: 781 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 1,293 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: 2,202 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 3,464
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2019.
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