Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Northern Rural

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Northern Rural indicate a 0.8% decrease in population under working age, a 34.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 0.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Northern Rural - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41514.11794.72095.0+58
5 to 92095.72095.52425.8+33
10 to 142787.62456.42636.3-15
15 to 193128.52596.82746.6-39
20 to 242135.82225.82285.5+16
25 to 291804.91925.01994.8+19
30 to 341504.11774.62095.0+59
35 to 391554.22035.32265.4+72
40 to 442496.82426.32586.2+9
45 to 493619.82717.12927.0-69
50 to 543309.03017.93037.3-27
55 to 593579.73479.03037.3-54
60 to 642316.33128.12846.8+54
65 to 692095.72867.52666.4+58
70 to 741213.31664.32435.9+122
75 to 79812.21283.31884.5+107
80 to 84411.1551.41142.7+73
85 and over471.3371.0551.3+8
Total persons3,675100.03,831100.04,158100.0+483

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 55 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 114 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 188 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 243 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 266 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 284 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 303 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 303 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 292 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 258 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 226 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 209 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 199 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 228 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 274 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 263 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 242 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 209 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 37 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 55 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 128 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 166 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 286 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 312 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 347 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 301 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 271 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 242 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 203 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 177 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 192 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 222 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 259 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 245 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 209 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 179 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 47 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 41 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 81 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 121 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 209 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 231 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 357 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 330 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 361 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 249 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 155 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 150 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 180 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 213 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 312 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 278 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 209 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 151
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 18 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 59 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 60 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 78 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: -20 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: -27 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: -44 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 2 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 21 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 15 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 23 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 32 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 8 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 7 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 15 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 18 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 33 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 30 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: -10 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 14 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 47 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 44 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 77 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 81 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -10 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -29 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -90 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -7 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 49 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 27 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 11 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 9 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -54 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -33 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 0 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 28
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Northern Rural was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 9.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 60 to 64, which is expected to increase by 81 and account for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 55 to 59 years, with a total of 347 persons.

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