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Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast

Longwarry - Longwarry North

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Longwarry - Longwarry North indicate a 30.1% increase in population under working age, a 66.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 24.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Longwarry - Longwarry North is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Longwarry - Longwarry North - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41917.52377.12956.8+104
5 to 92158.42617.83247.4+109
10 to 141626.42417.23057.0+143
15 to 191345.31965.92515.8+117
20 to 241646.41845.52365.4+72
25 to 291847.22176.52686.2+84
30 to 341867.32427.22946.8+108
35 to 391646.42316.92856.5+121
40 to 441415.52066.22726.3+131
45 to 491485.81855.52595.9+111
50 to 541736.81835.52595.9+86
55 to 591817.11805.42395.5+58
60 to 641485.81895.72325.3+84
65 to 691234.81925.72215.1+98
70 to 741164.61574.72074.8+91
75 to 79662.61203.61834.2+117
80 to 84230.9852.61443.3+121
85 and over261.0361.1801.8+54
Total persons2,545100.03,343100.04,354100.0+1,809
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Longwarry - Longwarry North was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 10 to 14, which is expected to increase by 79 and account for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 261 persons.

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