Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast
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Warragul

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Warragul indicate a 32.0% increase in population under working age, a 36.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 29.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Warragul - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 48975.91,2266.21,8066.2+909
5 to 99956.61,2626.31,9016.5+906
10 to 149066.01,2046.11,8216.2+914
15 to 191,0236.81,2046.11,7476.0+724
20 to 248655.71,2126.11,7406.0+876
25 to 298895.91,2996.51,8636.4+974
30 to 348565.71,2736.41,8726.4+1,016
35 to 397795.21,1836.01,7606.0+981
40 to 448595.71,1035.51,6735.7+815
45 to 491,0016.61,0925.51,6745.7+674
50 to 549576.31,1385.71,6565.7+700
55 to 599576.31,1795.91,6215.6+664
60 to 649286.11,1445.81,5955.5+667
65 to 699496.31,1275.71,5765.4+627
70 to 748195.41,0565.31,5245.2+705
75 to 795974.09084.61,2784.4+681
80 to 844222.86663.41,0213.5+600
85 and over3992.65943.01,0303.5+631
Total persons15,096100.019,870100.029,158100.0+14,062

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 1,030 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 1,021 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 1,278 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 1,524 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 1,576 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 1,595 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 1,621 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 1,656 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 1,674 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 1,673 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 1,760 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 1,872 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 1,863 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 1,740 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 1,747 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 1,821 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 1,901 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 1,806 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 594 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 666 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 908 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 1,056 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 1,127 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 1,144 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 1,179 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 1,138 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 1,092 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 1,103 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 1,183 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 1,273 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 1,299 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 1,212 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 1,204 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 1,204 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 1,262 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 1,226 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 399 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 422 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 597 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 819 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 949 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 928 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 957 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 957 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 1,001 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 859 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 779 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 856 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 889 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 865 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 1,023 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 906 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 995 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 897
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 436 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 355 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 370 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 468 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 449 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 451 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 442 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 518 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 582 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 571 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 577 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 599 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 564 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 528 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 543 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 617 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 639 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 580 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 195 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 244 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 311 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 237 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 178 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 216 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 222 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 181 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 91 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 244 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 404 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 417 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 410 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 348 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 181 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 298 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 267 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 328
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Warragul was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 6.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 30 to 34, which is expected to increase by 417 and account for 6.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 1,299 persons.

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