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Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast


Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Warragul indicate a 32.0% increase in population under working age, a 40.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 30.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Warragul is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Warragul - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49736.11,3046.11,8596.1+886
5 to 91,0676.61,3566.41,9756.4+907
10 to 149706.01,3126.11,9196.2+948
15 to 191,0966.81,3166.21,8596.1+763
20 to 249335.81,2886.01,7975.8+864
25 to 299726.11,3706.41,9006.2+928
30 to 349195.71,3376.31,9046.2+985
35 to 398365.21,2555.91,8075.9+971
40 to 449165.71,1865.61,7435.7+827
45 to 491,0746.71,1945.61,7765.8+701
50 to 541,0206.41,2525.91,7825.8+762
55 to 591,0206.41,3056.11,7665.7+746
60 to 649636.01,2535.91,7405.7+777
65 to 699986.21,2295.81,7265.6+727
70 to 748495.31,1275.31,6605.4+810
75 to 796113.89634.51,3784.5+767
80 to 844332.76913.21,0843.5+651
85 and over4002.56022.81,0543.4+654
Total persons16,050100.021,342100.030,727100.0+14,677
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Warragul was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 6.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 420 and account for 5.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 1,370 persons.

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