Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast
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Yarragon - Darnum - Nilma

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Yarragon - Darnum - Nilma indicate a 24.0% increase in population under working age, a 39.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 19.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Yarragon - Darnum - Nilma - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41937.02437.13387.1+145
5 to 91967.12517.33557.5+159
10 to 141916.92256.63206.7+129
15 to 191495.41785.22535.3+103
20 to 241625.91985.82645.6+102
25 to 291535.52146.22926.1+139
30 to 341686.12336.83216.7+153
35 to 391374.92136.23076.4+170
40 to 441806.52116.23056.4+126
45 to 491886.81925.62956.2+107
50 to 541756.32056.02825.9+106
55 to 592268.22156.32846.0+59
60 to 641766.41895.52505.2+73
65 to 691796.52136.22505.2+71
70 to 741314.71664.82214.6+90
75 to 79802.91424.11823.8+102
80 to 84602.2912.61483.1+88
85 and over260.9501.5932.0+68
Total persons2,770100.03,427100.04,760100.0+1,990

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 93 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 148 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 182 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 221 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 250 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 250 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 284 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 282 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 295 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 305 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 307 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 321 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 292 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 264 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 253 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 320 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 355 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 338 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 50 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 91 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 142 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 166 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 213 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 189 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 215 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 205 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 192 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 211 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 213 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 233 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 214 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 198 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 178 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 225 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 251 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 243 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 26 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 60 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 80 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 131 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 179 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 176 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 226 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 175 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 188 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 180 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 137 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 168 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 153 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 162 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 149 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 191 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 196 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 193
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 43 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 57 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 41 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 55 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 36 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 61 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 70 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 77 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 103 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 95 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 94 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 88 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 78 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 67 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 75 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 95 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 104 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 95 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 25 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 31 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 61 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 35 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 35 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 12 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -11 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 30 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 4 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 31 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 76 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 65 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 61 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 35 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 29 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 34 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 55 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 50
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Yarragon - Darnum - Nilma was ages 55 to 59, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 76 and account for 6.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 251 persons.

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