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Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast

Baw Baw Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Baw Baw Shire indicate a 27.1% increase in population under working age, a 38.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 21.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Baw Baw Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Baw Baw Shire - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43,1386.43,9686.45,4526.4+2,313
5 to 93,4897.14,2346.85,8296.9+2,340
10 to 143,0336.24,0776.65,6076.6+2,574
15 to 193,0786.23,7656.15,0926.0+2,013
20 to 242,6865.43,3785.44,6435.5+1,957
25 to 292,8065.73,6295.84,9225.8+2,116
30 to 342,8035.73,7296.05,1116.0+2,308
35 to 392,6485.43,6605.95,0235.9+2,375
40 to 442,8895.93,5995.84,9845.9+2,094
45 to 493,2326.63,5735.75,0025.9+1,770
50 to 543,2866.73,6815.94,9685.9+1,682
55 to 593,4397.03,8256.24,9295.8+1,490
60 to 643,2026.53,7976.14,8275.7+1,625
65 to 693,1406.43,8066.14,7805.6+1,640
70 to 742,4885.03,3695.44,5065.3+2,018
75 to 791,7423.52,7624.43,7664.4+2,025
80 to 841,1232.31,8182.92,8623.4+1,740
85 and over1,0732.21,4942.42,4622.9+1,390
Total persons49,295100.062,164100.084,766100.0+35,471
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), July 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Baw Baw Shire was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 10 to 14, which is expected to increase by 1,044 and account for 6.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 4,234 persons.

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