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Baw Baw ShirePopulation forecast

Warragul (South)

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Warragul (South) indicate a 1.5% increase in population under working age, a 28.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Warragul (South) is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Warragul (South) - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42084.52464.94275.6+219
5 to 92836.12675.34786.2+195
10 to 142896.22795.54786.2+189
15 to 193487.53005.94395.7+91
20 to 242455.32434.83825.0+137
25 to 291934.22184.33784.9+185
30 to 342024.32514.94385.7+237
35 to 392054.42685.34465.8+240
40 to 442395.12625.24295.6+191
45 to 493477.52675.34305.6+83
50 to 543136.82905.74235.5+110
55 to 592886.23266.43985.2+111
60 to 642796.03176.34095.3+130
65 to 693267.03356.64415.7+115
70 to 743206.93426.74866.3+167
75 to 792124.63146.24065.3+194
80 to 841513.32565.13394.4+188
85 and over1904.12885.74555.9+265
Total persons4,638100.05,069100.07,685100.0+3,047
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Warragul (South) was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 80 to 84, which is expected to increase by 105 and account for 5.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 70 to 74 years, with a total of 342 persons.

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