Northern Beaches CouncilPopulation forecast
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North Manly

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for North Manly indicate a 3.9% decrease in population under working age, a 36.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Northern Beaches Council area is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
North Manly - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42347.32477.52597.5+25
5 to 92949.22627.92637.6-31
10 to 142497.72387.22527.3+4
15 to 192046.32397.32366.8+32
20 to 241705.31685.11724.9+2
25 to 291384.31334.01484.3+10
30 to 341996.21574.81674.8-31
35 to 392156.72036.22176.2+2
40 to 442878.92286.92296.6-58
45 to 492939.12246.82316.7-61
50 to 542367.32487.52236.4-13
55 to 591464.52367.12035.8+57
60 to 641665.21885.72005.7+34
65 to 691354.21233.71835.3+49
70 to 74722.21334.01544.4+82
75 to 79611.91213.71203.4+59
80 to 84541.7752.31153.3+61
85 and over642.0742.31053.0+40
Total persons3,216100.03,297100.03,478100.0+262

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 105 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 115 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 120 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 154 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 183 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 200 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 203 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 223 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 231 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 229 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 217 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 167 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 148 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 172 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 236 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 252 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 263 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 259 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 74 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 75 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 121 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 133 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 123 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 188 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 236 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 248 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 224 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 228 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 203 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 157 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 133 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 168 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 239 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 238 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 262 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 247 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 64 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 54 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 61 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 72 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 135 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 166 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 146 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 236 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 293 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 287 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 215 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 199 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 138 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 170 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 204 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 249 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 294 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 234
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 30 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 40 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: -1 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 21 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 61 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: 12 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -33 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: -25 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 7 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 1 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 13 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 10 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 15 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 4 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: -3 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 15 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 2 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 13 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 10 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 21 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 60 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 61 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: -12 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 22 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 90 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 12 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -68 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -59 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: -11 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: -42 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -5 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -2 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 35 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -11 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: -33 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 12
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in North Manly was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 9.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 55 to 59, which is expected to increase by 90 and account for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 262 persons.

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