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Northern Beaches CouncilPopulation forecast

Manly Vale

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Manly Vale indicate a 2.3% increase in population under working age, a 36.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 8.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Manly Vale is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Manly Vale - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45107.94556.44676.1-43
5 to 94116.44165.84055.2-6
10 to 142964.63745.23624.7+66
15 to 192754.33695.23794.9+104
20 to 243084.84506.34996.5+191
25 to 295819.05688.06178.0+36
30 to 3470010.96088.56618.6-39
35 to 396189.65778.15897.6-29
40 to 445408.45177.25006.5-40
45 to 494446.94596.44505.8+6
50 to 543755.84646.54595.9+84
55 to 593285.14266.04425.7+114
60 to 642453.83575.04195.4+174
65 to 692113.32974.23724.8+161
70 to 741161.82373.33364.4+220
75 to 791392.22102.92933.8+154
80 to 841001.61361.92212.9+121
85 and over2323.62082.92443.2+12
Total persons6,429100.07,128100.07,716100.0+1,287
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Manly Vale was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 10.9% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 20 to 24, which is expected to increase by 142 and account for 6.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 608 persons.

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