Northern Beaches CouncilPopulation forecast
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Manly Vale

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Manly Vale indicate a 2.3% increase in population under working age, a 36.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 8.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Northern Beaches Council area is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Manly Vale - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45107.94556.44676.1-43
5 to 94116.44165.84055.2-6
10 to 142964.63745.23624.7+66
15 to 192754.33695.23794.9+104
20 to 243084.84506.34996.5+191
25 to 295819.05688.06178.0+36
30 to 3470010.96088.56618.6-39
35 to 396189.65778.15897.6-29
40 to 445408.45177.25006.5-40
45 to 494446.94596.44505.8+6
50 to 543755.84646.54595.9+84
55 to 593285.14266.04425.7+114
60 to 642453.83575.04195.4+174
65 to 692113.32974.23724.8+161
70 to 741161.82373.33364.4+220
75 to 791392.22102.92933.8+154
80 to 841001.61361.92212.9+121
85 and over2323.62082.92443.2+12
Total persons6,429100.07,128100.07,716100.0+1,287

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 244 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 221 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 293 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 336 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 372 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 419 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 442 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 459 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 450 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 500 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 589 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 661 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 617 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 499 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 379 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 362 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 405 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 467 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 208 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 136 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 210 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 237 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 297 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 357 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 426 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 464 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 459 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 517 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 577 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 608 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 568 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 450 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 369 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 374 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 416 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 455 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 232 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 100 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 139 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 116 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 211 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 245 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 328 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 375 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 444 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 540 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 618 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 700 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 581 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 308 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 275 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 296 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 411 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 510
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 35 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 85 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 83 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 98 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 75 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: 62 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: 16 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: -5 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: -9 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: -17 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 13 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 53 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 49 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 49 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 11 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: -11 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: -11 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 12 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: -24 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 36 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 71 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 121 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 86 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 112 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 98 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 89 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 15 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -23 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: -41 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: -92 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -13 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 142 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 94 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 78 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 5 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: -55
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Manly Vale was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 10.9% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 20 to 24, which is expected to increase by 142 and account for 6.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 608 persons.

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