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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Cardinia Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Cardinia Shire indicate a 73.3% increase in population under working age, a 55.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 53.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Cardinia Shire - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 48,3858.613,6548.815,8727.9+7,487
5 to 97,6207.813,7988.916,7428.4+9,122
10 to 146,8367.012,1377.815,7867.9+8,950
15 to 196,4686.69,8136.314,0527.0+7,585
20 to 246,4396.69,2776.012,3976.2+5,959
25 to 297,1147.311,0607.112,6326.3+5,518
30 to 347,5617.712,6968.214,1827.1+6,621
35 to 396,7506.912,5948.114,9517.5+8,201
40 to 446,8307.011,1267.214,7017.3+7,872
45 to 496,6936.99,2886.013,3506.7+6,656
50 to 545,9786.18,3785.411,6685.8+5,690
55 to 595,3605.57,3154.710,0615.0+4,701
60 to 644,3954.56,1984.08,3744.2+3,979
65 to 693,9964.15,2933.47,1493.6+3,152
70 to 742,9323.04,2872.86,1333.1+3,200
75 to 791,9072.03,5012.34,9712.5+3,064
80 to 841,1841.22,2531.53,6421.8+2,457
85 and over1,1621.22,0711.33,5751.8+2,413
Total persons97,608100.0154,741100.0200,238100.0+102,630
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Cardinia Shire was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 5 to 9, which is expected to increase by 6,178 and account for 8.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 13,798 persons.

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