Frankston CityPopulation forecast
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Karingal Local Area

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Karingal Local Area indicate a 2.3% increase in population under working age, a 14.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 0.6% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Frankston City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Karingal Local Area - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49576.98706.18565.9-101
5 to 98286.08566.07975.5-31
10 to 147075.18235.87565.2+48
15 to 197255.27675.47645.3+39
20 to 248225.97935.68375.8+15
25 to 291,0867.89146.49426.5-144
30 to 341,1628.41,0167.19976.9-166
35 to 399586.91,0447.39566.6-2
40 to 449016.59766.99116.3+9
45 to 497885.78055.78515.9+63
50 to 548125.97985.68465.8+35
55 to 597945.77965.68575.9+63
60 to 647475.48325.88215.7+74
65 to 698346.08035.68265.7-8
70 to 746824.96984.97655.3+83
75 to 794373.26414.56674.6+230
80 to 843082.24513.25393.7+231
85 and over3052.23442.44853.3+180
Total persons13,852100.014,226100.014,472100.0+620

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 485 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 539 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 667 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 765 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 826 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 821 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 857 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 846 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 851 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 911 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 956 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 997 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 942 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 837 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 764 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 756 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 797 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 856 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 344 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 451 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 641 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 698 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 803 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 832 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 796 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 798 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 805 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 976 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 1,044 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 1,016 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 914 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 793 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 767 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 823 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 856 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 870 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 305 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 308 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 437 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 682 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 834 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 747 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 794 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 812 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 788 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 901 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 958 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 1,162 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 1,086 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 822 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 725 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 707 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 828 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 957
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 141 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 88 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 26 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 67 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 23 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: -11 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 61 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 48 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 46 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: -65 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: -88 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: -20 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 29 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 44 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: -3 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: -67 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: -60 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: -14 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 40 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 143 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 204 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 16 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: -31 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 86 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 2 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -14 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 17 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 75 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 86 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: -146 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -173 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -30 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 42 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 115 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 29 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: -87
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Karingal Local Area was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 204 and account for 4.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 35 to 39 years, with a total of 1,044 persons.

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