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Frankston CityPopulation forecast

Frankston Central & Frankston Heights Local Area

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Frankston Central & Frankston Heights Local Area indicate a 10.9% increase in population under working age, a 6.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 8.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Frankston City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Frankston Central & Frankston Heights Local Area - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,3265.51,6116.21,8415.8+515
5 to 91,3125.51,3295.11,6335.2+321
10 to 141,2775.31,4025.41,6185.1+341
15 to 191,3085.41,5405.91,8125.7+504
20 to 241,5436.41,7216.62,1116.7+568
25 to 291,8137.52,0037.72,4427.7+629
30 to 341,9988.32,1148.12,5178.0+519
35 to 391,7597.32,0057.72,3237.4+564
40 to 441,5566.51,8547.12,2387.1+682
45 to 491,6456.81,7356.62,2707.2+626
50 to 541,5066.31,6476.32,1166.7+609
55 to 591,4295.91,4715.61,8826.0+453
60 to 641,4426.01,3305.11,5775.0+134
65 to 691,2275.11,2484.81,3394.2+112
70 to 741,1724.91,0944.21,1663.7-6
75 to 797103.09593.79703.1+261
80 to 845122.15212.07972.5+285
85 and over4972.15552.18992.8+401
Total persons24,032100.026,137100.031,550100.0+7,518
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Frankston Central & Frankston Heights Local Area was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 8.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 40 to 44, which is expected to increase by 297 and account for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 2,114 persons.

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