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Frankston CityPopulation forecast

Frankston South Local Area

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Frankston South Local Area indicate a 8.0% increase in population under working age, a 2.8% decrease in population of retirement age, and a 5.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Frankston City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Frankston South Local Area - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49905.21,1445.81,1955.7+205
5 to 91,3197.01,3246.71,4276.8+108
10 to 141,3687.21,5027.61,5507.4+182
15 to 191,1916.31,3026.61,4096.7+218
20 to 248814.68744.49814.7+100
25 to 297073.77493.87933.8+86
30 to 349144.81,0025.11,0254.9+111
35 to 391,1366.01,2856.51,3256.3+189
40 to 441,2606.61,4607.41,5567.4+296
45 to 491,3557.21,4247.21,6077.6+252
50 to 541,3627.21,3436.81,4877.1+125
55 to 591,2176.41,2746.41,3316.3+114
60 to 641,1746.21,1275.71,1695.6-5
65 to 699895.21,0395.31,0384.9+49
70 to 749805.28864.59614.6-19
75 to 797854.18174.18113.8+26
80 to 845733.06033.06793.2+106
85 and over7473.96163.17123.4-35
Total persons18,948100.019,770100.021,053100.0+2,105
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Frankston South Local Area was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 40 to 44, which is expected to increase by 200 and account for 7.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 1,502 persons.

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