Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Hills Subregion

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Hills Subregion indicate a 1.0% increase in population under working age, a 33.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.7% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Hills Subregion - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,3406.01,3896.11,4526.0+112
5 to 91,5216.91,5336.71,6146.7+94
10 to 141,6617.51,6437.21,7087.1+46
15 to 191,6537.41,5466.71,6086.7-45
20 to 241,3025.91,2375.41,2815.3-21
25 to 291,0594.81,1074.81,1264.7+67
30 to 341,1225.11,2175.31,2725.3+150
35 to 391,3065.91,4256.21,5006.2+194
40 to 441,6867.61,6167.01,7057.1+20
45 to 491,7968.11,6417.21,7437.2-53
50 to 541,7818.01,6727.31,6857.0-95
55 to 591,7167.71,6167.01,5766.5-140
60 to 641,4236.41,5186.61,4476.0+24
65 to 691,1435.21,3175.71,2865.3+142
70 to 747603.41,0034.41,1184.6+358
75 to 794442.07393.28983.7+454
80 to 842351.14231.86452.7+411
85 and over2441.12891.34732.0+229
Total persons22,191100.022,932100.024,137100.0+1,946

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 473 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 645 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 898 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 1,118 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 1,286 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 1,447 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 1,576 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 1,685 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 1,743 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 1,705 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 1,500 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 1,272 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 1,126 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 1,281 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 1,608 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 1,708 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 1,614 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 1,452 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 289 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 423 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 739 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 1,003 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 1,317 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 1,518 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 1,616 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 1,672 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 1,641 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 1,616 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 1,425 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 1,217 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 1,107 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 1,237 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 1,546 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 1,643 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 1,533 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 1,389 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 244 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 235 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 444 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 760 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 1,143 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 1,423 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 1,716 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 1,781 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 1,796 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 1,686 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 1,306 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 1,122 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 1,059 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 1,302 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 1,653 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 1,661 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 1,521 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 1,340
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 184 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 222 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 159 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 114 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: -32 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: -71 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: -41 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 13 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 102 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 89 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 75 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 55 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 19 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 44 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 62 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 64 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 81 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 63 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 45 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 188 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 295 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 243 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 174 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 95 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -100 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -109 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -155 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -70 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 119 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 95 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 48 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -64 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -107 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -18 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 13 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 49
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Hills Subregion was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 295 and account for 3.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 50 to 54 years, with a total of 1,672 persons.

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