Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast
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Gembrook

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Gembrook indicate a 5.3% increase in population under working age, a 25.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Cardinia Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Gembrook - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41958.01857.12016.9+6
5 to 91817.41907.32117.3+30
10 to 141717.02017.72167.4+45
15 to 192269.32067.92297.9+3
20 to 241496.11646.31896.5+40
25 to 291225.01415.41475.1+25
30 to 34923.81174.51324.5+40
35 to 391476.01425.41575.4+10
40 to 441767.21646.31896.5+13
45 to 492209.01947.52117.3-9
50 to 541787.31987.62097.2+31
55 to 591897.72057.91966.8+8
60 to 641265.21586.11766.1+50
65 to 69963.91375.31475.1+52
70 to 74743.0853.31194.1+45
75 to 79522.1522.0802.7+28
80 to 84190.8371.4582.0+39
85 and over311.3301.2381.3+7
Total persons2,444100.02,604100.02,905100.0+460

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 38 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 58 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 80 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 119 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 147 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 176 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 196 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 209 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 211 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 189 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 157 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 132 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 147 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 189 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 229 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 216 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 211 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 201 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 30 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 37 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 52 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 85 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 137 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 158 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 205 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 198 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 194 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 164 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 142 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 117 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 141 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 164 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 206 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 201 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 190 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 185 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 31 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 19 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 52 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 74 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 96 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 126 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 189 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 178 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 220 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 176 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 147 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 92 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 122 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 149 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 226 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 171 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 181 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 195
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 8 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 21 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 28 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 34 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 10 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 18 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: -9 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 11 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 17 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 25 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 15 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 15 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 6 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 25 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 23 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 15 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 22 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 16 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: -1 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 17 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 0 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 11 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 42 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 32 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 16 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 20 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -26 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -12 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: -5 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 25 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 18 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 15 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -20 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 30 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 9 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: -11
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Gembrook was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 9.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 65 to 69, which is expected to increase by 42 and account for 5.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 206 persons.

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