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Cardinia ShirePopulation forecast

Pakenham North West

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Pakenham North West indicate a 27.2% increase in population under working age, a 34.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 19.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Pakenham North West is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Pakenham North West - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,27010.81,2698.81,1457.9-125
5 to 99458.11,2478.71,1387.8+193
10 to 146715.71,1568.01,0747.4+403
15 to 196635.79456.61,0066.9+342
20 to 249668.29666.79986.8+32
25 to 291,1349.71,1588.11,0697.3-65
30 to 341,1139.51,1978.31,0627.3-50
35 to 398367.11,0677.49866.8+150
40 to 447106.19406.59116.2+201
45 to 496465.57855.58565.9+210
50 to 546125.27315.18065.5+193
55 to 594573.96534.57345.0+277
60 to 644303.75754.06294.3+199
65 to 693963.44663.25623.9+166
70 to 743072.64092.84883.3+181
75 to 792382.03332.34022.8+164
80 to 841611.42301.62982.0+137
85 and over1671.42621.84142.8+246
Total persons11,723100.014,388100.014,575100.0+2,852
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Pakenham North West was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 10.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 10 to 14, which is expected to increase by 485 and account for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 1,269 persons.

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