Shoalhaven City CouncilPopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds will increase by an average of 27 dwellings per annum to 4,611 in 2041.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Shoalhaven City. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2017 dwelling additions are based on building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. From 2016 onwards:

  • Coastal Waters Retirement Resort - 37 dwellings (2017-2019)
  • Bayswood Estate - 232 dwellings (2017-2024)
  • Bayswood Seniors Village - 166 dwellings (2018-2031)
  • Low-moderate level of infill (6-12 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2041 Total dwellings: 4,611 2040 Total dwellings: 4,599 2039 Total dwellings: 4,587 2038 Total dwellings: 4,575 2037 Total dwellings: 4,563 2036 Total dwellings: 4,551 2035 Total dwellings: 4,539 2034 Total dwellings: 4,527 2033 Total dwellings: 4,515 2032 Total dwellings: 4,503 2031 Total dwellings: 4,491 2030 Total dwellings: 4,474 2029 Total dwellings: 4,456 2028 Total dwellings: 4,434 2027 Total dwellings: 4,409 2026 Total dwellings: 4,384 2025 Total dwellings: 4,361 2024 Total dwellings: 4,338 2023 Total dwellings: 4,312 2022 Total dwellings: 4,283 2021 Total dwellings: 4,252 2020 Total dwellings: 4,211 2019 Total dwellings: 4,145 2018 Total dwellings: 4,064 2017 Total dwellings: 3,992 2041 Total dwellings: 4,611 2040 Total dwellings: 4,599 2039 Total dwellings: 4,587 2038 Total dwellings: 4,575 2037 Total dwellings: 4,563 2036 Total dwellings: 4,551 2035 Total dwellings: 4,539 2034 Total dwellings: 4,527 2033 Total dwellings: 4,515 2032 Total dwellings: 4,503 2031 Total dwellings: 4,491 2030 Total dwellings: 4,474 2029 Total dwellings: 4,456 2028 Total dwellings: 4,434 2027 Total dwellings: 4,409 2026 Total dwellings: 4,384 2025 Total dwellings: 4,361 2024 Total dwellings: 4,338 2023 Total dwellings: 4,312 2022 Total dwellings: 4,283 2021 Total dwellings: 4,252 2020 Total dwellings: 4,211 2019 Total dwellings: 4,145 2018 Total dwellings: 4,064 2017 Total dwellings: 3,992 2041 Forecast development: 12 2040 Forecast development: 12 2039 Forecast development: 12 2038 Forecast development: 12 2037 Forecast development: 12 2036 Forecast development: 12 2035 Forecast development: 12 2034 Forecast development: 12 2033 Forecast development: 12 2032 Forecast development: 12 2031 Forecast development: 17 2030 Forecast development: 18 2029 Forecast development: 22 2028 Forecast development: 25 2027 Forecast development: 25 2026 Forecast development: 23 2025 Forecast development: 23 2024 Forecast development: 26 2023 Forecast development: 29 2022 Forecast development: 31 2021 Forecast development: 41 2020 Forecast development: 66 2019 Forecast development: 81 2018 Forecast development: 72 2017 Forecast development: 58
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2018.
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