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Shoalhaven City CouncilPopulation forecast

Shoalhaven City Council

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Shoalhaven City Council indicate a 9.5% increase in population under working age, a 44.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 4.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Shoalhaven City Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Shoalhaven City Council - Total persons201620312051Change between 2016 and 2051
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45,6405.55,9815.17,0335.1+1,393
5 to 95,9365.86,4925.57,5725.5+1,636
10 to 145,6725.66,4155.57,4475.4+1,775
15 to 195,5115.45,5114.76,3324.6+821
20 to 245,0334.94,9864.25,6784.1+645
25 to 294,9914.95,2854.56,0854.4+1,094
30 to 344,9794.95,9165.06,8445.0+1,864
35 to 394,9014.86,1835.37,2145.2+2,313
40 to 445,5855.55,9865.17,0985.2+1,514
45 to 495,8965.85,7824.96,9965.1+1,100
50 to 546,6166.56,0545.27,2585.3+641
55 to 597,5857.47,2006.18,1065.9+521
60 to 647,7317.68,3607.19,1936.7+1,461
65 to 698,2318.19,2637.910,0137.3+1,783
70 to 746,5036.49,1337.89,9857.3+3,482
75 to 794,8244.77,7816.69,3926.8+4,568
80 to 843,2193.26,0375.17,8885.7+4,669
85 and over3,1163.15,1354.47,5405.5+4,424
Total persons101,970100.0117,499100.0137,673100.0+35,702
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2051, prepared by .id (informed decisions), March 2021.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Shoalhaven City Council was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 2,957 and account for 6.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 9,263 persons.

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