City of MeltonPopulation forecast
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Harkness

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Harkness will increase by an average of 128 dwellings per annum to 7,535 in 2051.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in the City of Melton. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2017 dwelling additions are based on building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. From 2016 onwards:

  • Fleet Park Estate - 25 dwellings (2017-2023)
  • Peppermint Grove Estate - 231 dwellings (2017-2023)
  • Arnolds Creek - 297 dwellings (2017-2026)
  • Willandra Estate - 621 dwellings (2017-2027)
  • Reidy Rise - 46 dwellings (2017-2028)
  • Roslyn Park Estate - 11 dwellings (2017-2028)
  • Micasa Rise - 10 dwellings (2019-2028)
  • 559 Coburns Rd - 181 dwellings (2023-2029)
  • Melton West PSP - 243 dwellings (2030-2039)
  • Bulmans Road PSP - 2,519 dwellings (2033-2051)
  • Small sites - 9 dwellings
  • Low-moderate level of infill (8-11 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2051 Total dwellings: 7,535 2050 Total dwellings: 7,447 2049 Total dwellings: 7,359 2048 Total dwellings: 7,247 2047 Total dwellings: 7,119 2046 Total dwellings: 6,971 2045 Total dwellings: 6,783 2044 Total dwellings: 6,570 2043 Total dwellings: 6,352 2042 Total dwellings: 6,144 2041 Total dwellings: 5,946 2040 Total dwellings: 5,768 2039 Total dwellings: 5,600 2038 Total dwellings: 5,439 2037 Total dwellings: 5,296 2036 Total dwellings: 5,178 2035 Total dwellings: 5,050 2034 Total dwellings: 4,912 2033 Total dwellings: 4,794 2032 Total dwellings: 4,706 2031 Total dwellings: 4,648 2030 Total dwellings: 4,615 2029 Total dwellings: 4,597 2028 Total dwellings: 4,583 2027 Total dwellings: 4,557 2026 Total dwellings: 4,520 2025 Total dwellings: 4,468 2024 Total dwellings: 4,408 2023 Total dwellings: 4,335 2022 Total dwellings: 4,241 2021 Total dwellings: 4,152 2020 Total dwellings: 4,033 2019 Total dwellings: 3,884 2018 Total dwellings: 3,610 2017 Total dwellings: 3,344 2051 Total dwellings: 7,535 2050 Total dwellings: 7,447 2049 Total dwellings: 7,359 2048 Total dwellings: 7,247 2047 Total dwellings: 7,119 2046 Total dwellings: 6,971 2045 Total dwellings: 6,783 2044 Total dwellings: 6,570 2043 Total dwellings: 6,352 2042 Total dwellings: 6,144 2041 Total dwellings: 5,946 2040 Total dwellings: 5,768 2039 Total dwellings: 5,600 2038 Total dwellings: 5,439 2037 Total dwellings: 5,296 2036 Total dwellings: 5,178 2035 Total dwellings: 5,050 2034 Total dwellings: 4,912 2033 Total dwellings: 4,794 2032 Total dwellings: 4,706 2031 Total dwellings: 4,648 2030 Total dwellings: 4,615 2029 Total dwellings: 4,597 2028 Total dwellings: 4,583 2027 Total dwellings: 4,557 2026 Total dwellings: 4,520 2025 Total dwellings: 4,468 2024 Total dwellings: 4,408 2023 Total dwellings: 4,335 2022 Total dwellings: 4,241 2021 Total dwellings: 4,152 2020 Total dwellings: 4,033 2019 Total dwellings: 3,884 2018 Total dwellings: 3,610 2017 Total dwellings: 3,344 2051 Forecast development: 88 2050 Forecast development: 88 2049 Forecast development: 112 2048 Forecast development: 128 2047 Forecast development: 148 2046 Forecast development: 188 2045 Forecast development: 213 2044 Forecast development: 218 2043 Forecast development: 208 2042 Forecast development: 198 2041 Forecast development: 178 2040 Forecast development: 168 2039 Forecast development: 161 2038 Forecast development: 143 2037 Forecast development: 118 2036 Forecast development: 128 2035 Forecast development: 138 2034 Forecast development: 118 2033 Forecast development: 88 2032 Forecast development: 58 2031 Forecast development: 33 2030 Forecast development: 18 2029 Forecast development: 14 2028 Forecast development: 26 2027 Forecast development: 37 2026 Forecast development: 52 2025 Forecast development: 60 2024 Forecast development: 73 2023 Forecast development: 94 2022 Forecast development: 89 2021 Forecast development: 119 2020 Forecast development: 149 2019 Forecast development: 274 2018 Forecast development: 266 2017 Forecast development: 291
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2051, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2019.
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