City of MeltonPopulation forecast
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Thornhill Park

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Thornhill Park will increase by an average of 224 dwellings per annum to 7,867 in 2051.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in the City of Melton. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2017 dwelling additions are based on building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. From 2016 onwards:

  • Thornhill Park Estate - 3,458 dwellings (2017-2038)
  • Rockbank South PSP - 2,225 dwellings (2036-2051)
  • Toolern PSP - 2,147 dwellings (2037-2051)
  • Low level of infill (1 dwelling per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2051 Total dwellings: 7,867 2050 Total dwellings: 7,676 2049 Total dwellings: 7,456 2048 Total dwellings: 7,204 2047 Total dwellings: 6,931 2046 Total dwellings: 6,636 2045 Total dwellings: 6,325 2044 Total dwellings: 5,999 2043 Total dwellings: 5,654 2042 Total dwellings: 5,313 2041 Total dwellings: 4,958 2040 Total dwellings: 4,622 2039 Total dwellings: 4,292 2038 Total dwellings: 3,972 2037 Total dwellings: 3,709 2036 Total dwellings: 3,508 2035 Total dwellings: 3,391 2034 Total dwellings: 3,271 2033 Total dwellings: 3,116 2032 Total dwellings: 2,941 2031 Total dwellings: 2,781 2030 Total dwellings: 2,597 2029 Total dwellings: 2,417 2028 Total dwellings: 2,227 2027 Total dwellings: 1,982 2026 Total dwellings: 1,717 2025 Total dwellings: 1,486 2024 Total dwellings: 1,266 2023 Total dwellings: 1,076 2022 Total dwellings: 886 2021 Total dwellings: 706 2020 Total dwellings: 535 2019 Total dwellings: 415 2018 Total dwellings: 127 2017 Total dwellings: 33 2051 Total dwellings: 7,867 2050 Total dwellings: 7,676 2049 Total dwellings: 7,456 2048 Total dwellings: 7,204 2047 Total dwellings: 6,931 2046 Total dwellings: 6,636 2045 Total dwellings: 6,325 2044 Total dwellings: 5,999 2043 Total dwellings: 5,654 2042 Total dwellings: 5,313 2041 Total dwellings: 4,958 2040 Total dwellings: 4,622 2039 Total dwellings: 4,292 2038 Total dwellings: 3,972 2037 Total dwellings: 3,709 2036 Total dwellings: 3,508 2035 Total dwellings: 3,391 2034 Total dwellings: 3,271 2033 Total dwellings: 3,116 2032 Total dwellings: 2,941 2031 Total dwellings: 2,781 2030 Total dwellings: 2,597 2029 Total dwellings: 2,417 2028 Total dwellings: 2,227 2027 Total dwellings: 1,982 2026 Total dwellings: 1,717 2025 Total dwellings: 1,486 2024 Total dwellings: 1,266 2023 Total dwellings: 1,076 2022 Total dwellings: 886 2021 Total dwellings: 706 2020 Total dwellings: 535 2019 Total dwellings: 415 2018 Total dwellings: 127 2017 Total dwellings: 33 2051 Forecast development: 191 2050 Forecast development: 220 2049 Forecast development: 252 2048 Forecast development: 273 2047 Forecast development: 295 2046 Forecast development: 311 2045 Forecast development: 326 2044 Forecast development: 345 2043 Forecast development: 341 2042 Forecast development: 355 2041 Forecast development: 336 2040 Forecast development: 330 2039 Forecast development: 320 2038 Forecast development: 263 2037 Forecast development: 201 2036 Forecast development: 117 2035 Forecast development: 120 2034 Forecast development: 155 2033 Forecast development: 175 2032 Forecast development: 160 2031 Forecast development: 184 2030 Forecast development: 180 2029 Forecast development: 190 2028 Forecast development: 245 2027 Forecast development: 265 2026 Forecast development: 231 2025 Forecast development: 220 2024 Forecast development: 190 2023 Forecast development: 190 2022 Forecast development: 180 2021 Forecast development: 171 2020 Forecast development: 120 2019 Forecast development: 288 2018 Forecast development: 94 2017 Forecast development: 3
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2051, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2019.
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