Bega Valley ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Bega Valley Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Bega Valley Shire indicate a 3.5% decrease in population under working age, a 38.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 5.6% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Bega Valley Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Bega Valley Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 1,6194.81,6404.61,6834.4+65
5 to 9 1,9135.61,8045.01,8734.9-39
10 to 14 1,9705.81,8635.21,9455.1-25
15 to 19 1,8705.51,6874.71,6844.4-187
20 to 24 1,2923.81,2713.51,2453.3-47
25 to 29 1,2753.81,3143.71,3113.4+36
30 to 34 1,4874.41,4133.91,4793.9-8
35 to 39 1,4494.31,5714.41,6604.4+211
40 to 44 1,7555.21,7454.91,8104.7+55
45 to 49 2,1666.41,8375.11,9625.1-204
50 to 54 2,5517.52,2546.32,3316.1-219
55 to 59 3,0659.02,7077.52,6276.9-438
60 to 64 3,0479.03,0458.52,9927.8-55
65 to 69 2,8838.53,2709.13,1898.4+306
70 to 74 2,1106.22,9918.33,1518.3+1,041
75 to 79 1,5334.52,5117.02,9437.7+1,410
80 to 84 9952.91,5984.42,2996.0+1,303
85 and over9652.81,3993.91,9545.1+989
Total persons33,944100.035,919100.038,138100.0+4,194

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 1,954 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 2,299 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 2,943 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 3,151 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 3,189 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 2,992 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 2,627 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 2,331 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 1,962 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 1,810 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 1,660 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 1,479 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 1,311 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 1,245 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 1,684 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 1,945 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 1,873 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 1,683 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 1,399 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 1,598 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 2,511 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 2,991 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 3,270 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 3,045 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 2,707 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 2,254 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 1,837 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 1,745 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 1,571 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 1,413 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 1,314 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 1,271 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 1,687 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 1,863 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 1,804 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 1,640 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 965 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 995 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 1,533 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 2,110 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 2,883 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 3,047 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 3,065 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 2,551 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 2,166 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 1,755 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 1,449 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 1,487 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 1,275 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 1,292 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 1,870 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 1,970 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 1,913 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 1,619
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 555 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 701 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 432 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 159 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: -81 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: -53 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -80 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 77 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 125 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 65 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 89 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 66 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: -3 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: -25 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: -3 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 82 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 70 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 43 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 434 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 603 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 978 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 882 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 387 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: -2 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -358 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -297 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -329 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -10 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 121 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: -74 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 39 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -21 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -183 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -107 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: -109 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 22
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Bega Valley Shire was ages 55 to 59 , which accounted for 9.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79 , which is expected to increase by 978 and account for 7.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 3,270 persons.

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