Bega Valley ShirePopulation forecast
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Rural West

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Rural West indicate a 19.1% decrease in population under working age, a 66.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 15.9% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Bega Valley Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Rural West - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41244.41334.81294.7+5
5 to 91866.61475.31495.4-37
10 to 142187.71475.31525.5-66
15 to 191806.41364.91204.4-59
20 to 24562.01083.9802.9+24
25 to 291154.1953.4853.1-30
30 to 34973.5853.0973.50
35 to 39782.81063.81023.7+25
40 to 441314.61184.21154.2-16
45 to 492217.81304.71395.0-82
50 to 5428310.01806.51706.2-113
55 to 5931011.02488.91937.0-116
60 to 6430410.828610.32248.1-81
65 to 692488.828610.32519.1+3
70 to 741435.12549.12499.0+106
75 to 79582.11866.72228.1+164
80 to 84451.6933.41706.2+125
85 and over250.9461.61073.9+83
Total persons2,821100.02,785100.02,754100.0-67

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 107 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 170 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 222 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 249 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 251 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 224 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 193 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 170 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 139 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 115 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 102 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 97 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 85 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 80 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 120 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 152 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 149 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 129 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 46 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 93 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 186 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 254 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 286 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 286 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 248 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 180 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 130 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 118 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 106 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 85 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 95 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 108 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 136 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 147 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 147 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 133 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 25 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 45 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 58 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 143 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 248 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 304 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 310 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 283 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 221 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 131 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 78 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 97 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 115 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 56 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 180 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 218 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 186 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 124
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 61 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 77 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 36 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: -6 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: -35 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: -63 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -54 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: -9 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 9 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: -3 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: -4 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 12 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: -10 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: -28 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: -16 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 4 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 2 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: -4 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 21 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 48 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 128 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 111 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 38 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: -18 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -62 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -104 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -91 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: -13 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 28 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: -13 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -20 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 53 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -44 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -71 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: -39 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 9
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Rural West was ages 55 to 59, which accounted for 11.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 128 and account for 6.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 286 persons.

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