Bega Valley ShirePopulation forecast
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Rural North

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Rural North indicate a 8.2% decrease in population under working age, a 56.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 17.6% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Bega Valley Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Rural North - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4692.9933.8903.7+21
5 to 91295.31134.71134.6-16
10 to 141446.01084.41174.8-28
15 to 191325.51024.2943.9-39
20 to 24682.8753.1602.5-8
25 to 29582.4662.7592.4+1
30 to 341024.2753.1793.3-22
35 to 39652.7893.7933.8+28
40 to 441044.31174.81124.6+8
45 to 491827.51335.51445.9-38
50 to 542249.31626.71717.0-53
55 to 5927711.52098.61887.7-89
60 to 6431313.02289.41968.0-117
65 to 692319.624510.12078.5-24
70 to 741385.725510.52068.4+67
75 to 79863.51857.62028.3+116
80 to 84471.91014.21827.5+135
85 and over451.9712.91215.0+76
Total persons2,415100.02,426100.02,433100.0+18

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 121 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 182 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 202 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 206 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 207 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 196 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 188 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 171 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 144 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 112 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 93 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 79 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 59 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 60 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 94 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 117 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 113 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 90 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 71 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 101 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 185 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 255 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 245 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 228 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 209 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 162 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 133 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 117 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 89 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 75 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 66 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 75 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 102 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 108 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 113 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 93 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 45 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 47 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 86 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 138 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 231 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 313 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 277 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 224 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 182 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 104 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 65 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 102 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 58 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 68 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 132 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 144 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 129 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 69
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 51 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 81 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 17 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: -49 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: -38 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: -33 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -21 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 9 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 11 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: -5 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 4 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 4 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: -7 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: -15 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: -8 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 9 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 0 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: -2 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 25 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 54 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 99 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 117 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 14 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: -85 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -68 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -62 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -49 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 13 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 24 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: -27 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 8 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 8 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -31 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -37 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: -16 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 23
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Rural North was ages 60 to 64, which accounted for 13.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 117 and account for 10.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 70 to 74 years, with a total of 255 persons.

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