Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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Rosebud - Capel Sound - McCrae - Boneo - Fingal - Cape Schanck

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Rosebud - Capel Sound - McCrae - Boneo - Fingal - Cape Schanck will increase by an average of 109 dwellings per annum to 16,957 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Mornington Peninsula Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

Dwelling counts for the period 2011 to 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • Potton Avenue - 22 dwellings (2012-2017)
  • Peninsula Sands estate - 52 dwellings (2012-2018)
  • Small unit development - 121 dwellings (2012-2018)
  • Moonah Links Golf Course - remnant parcels - 153 dwellings (2012-2029)
  • Cape Schank Resort & Golf Course - remnant parcels - 98 dwellings (2012-2031)
  • 85 Elizabeth Avenue - 41 dwellings (2014-2018)
  • Currawong Court - 24 dwellings (2016-2017)
  • 12-23 Rosebud Parade - 65 dwellings (2016-2019)
  • 9 Mount Arthur Avenue - 18 dwellings (2017)
  • 189-191 Jetty Road - 10 dwellings (2017)
  • 92 Elizabeth Avenue - 73 dwellings (2017-2022)
  • 12-18 Leon Avenue - 18 dwellings (2018)
  • 40-52 Elizabeth Drive Rosebud - 15 dwellings (2018-2020)
  • Wagana Court - 59 dwellings (2018-2021)
  • 29-43 Bayview Avenue - 123 dwellings (2019-2025)
  • Small sites - 6 dwellings
  • High level of vacant lot development (26-32 dwellings per annum)
  • High level of infill development (30-57 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 16,957 2035 Total dwellings: 16,870 2034 Total dwellings: 16,783 2033 Total dwellings: 16,696 2032 Total dwellings: 16,609 2031 Total dwellings: 16,523 2030 Total dwellings: 16,435 2029 Total dwellings: 16,346 2028 Total dwellings: 16,252 2027 Total dwellings: 16,157 2026 Total dwellings: 16,060 2025 Total dwellings: 15,968 2024 Total dwellings: 15,869 2023 Total dwellings: 15,768 2022 Total dwellings: 15,660 2021 Total dwellings: 15,546 2020 Total dwellings: 15,420 2019 Total dwellings: 15,282 2018 Total dwellings: 15,121 2017 Total dwellings: 14,950 2036 Total dwellings: 16,957 2035 Total dwellings: 16,870 2034 Total dwellings: 16,783 2033 Total dwellings: 16,696 2032 Total dwellings: 16,609 2031 Total dwellings: 16,523 2030 Total dwellings: 16,435 2029 Total dwellings: 16,346 2028 Total dwellings: 16,252 2027 Total dwellings: 16,157 2026 Total dwellings: 16,060 2025 Total dwellings: 15,968 2024 Total dwellings: 15,869 2023 Total dwellings: 15,768 2022 Total dwellings: 15,660 2021 Total dwellings: 15,546 2020 Total dwellings: 15,420 2019 Total dwellings: 15,282 2018 Total dwellings: 15,121 2017 Total dwellings: 14,950 2036 Forecast development: 87 2035 Forecast development: 87 2034 Forecast development: 87 2033 Forecast development: 87 2032 Forecast development: 86 2031 Forecast development: 88 2030 Forecast development: 89 2029 Forecast development: 94 2028 Forecast development: 95 2027 Forecast development: 97 2026 Forecast development: 92 2025 Forecast development: 99 2024 Forecast development: 101 2023 Forecast development: 108 2022 Forecast development: 114 2021 Forecast development: 126 2020 Forecast development: 138 2019 Forecast development: 161 2018 Forecast development: 171 2017 Forecast development: 177
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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