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Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast

Mornington Peninsula Shire

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in Mornington Peninsula Shire is forecast to grow from 90,357 in 2016 to 101,781 in 2036, with the average household size falling from 2.40 to 2.34 by 2036.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Mornington Peninsula Shire. The period 2016 to 2026, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
Mornington Peninsula ShireForecast year
Summary20162021202620312036
Population160,862168,134172,036176,230181,097
Change in population (5yrs)--7,2723,9024,1944,867
Average annual change--0.89%0.46%0.48%0.55%
Households65,74669,37671,57573,72475,952
Average household size2.402.382.362.342.34
Population in non private dwellings3,0863,2593,4443,5703,586
Dwellings90,35794,59597,03899,375101,781
Dwelling occupancy rate72.7673.3473.7674.1974.62
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the total population of Mornington Peninsula Shire was estimated to be 160,862 people. It is expected to increase by over 15,368 people to 176,230 by 2026, at an average annual growth rate of 0.92%. This is based on an increase of over 7,978 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household falling from 2.40 to 2.34 by 2026.

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