Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Mornington Peninsula Shire

Components of population change

The greatest population change for Mornington Peninsula Shire is forecast for the period from 2017 to 2021, which is expected to have a net increase of 7,271 people.

There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population.

Components of population change
Mornington Peninsula ShireForecast period
Component2012 to 20162017 to 20212022 to 20262027 to 20312032 to 2036
Births--8,6598,7248,7588,998
Deaths--7,9308,3538,8689,337
Natural increase/decrease--730371-110-338
Net migration--6,3693,3464,1775,189
Change in persons in non-private dwellings--17318512616

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Forecast population change
Forecast population change 2036 forecast population change: 1,037 2035 forecast population change: 1,012 2034 forecast population change: 986 2033 forecast population change: 948 2032 forecast population change: 884 2031 forecast population change: 994 2030 forecast population change: 837 2029 forecast population change: 815 2028 forecast population change: 816 2027 forecast population change: 731 2026 forecast population change: 888 2025 forecast population change: 671 2024 forecast population change: 707 2023 forecast population change: 780 2022 forecast population change: 856 2021 forecast population change: 1,212 2020 forecast population change: 1,289 2019 forecast population change: 1,386 2018 forecast population change: 1,656 2017 forecast population change: 1,728
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease 2036 Natural increase: -71 2035 Natural increase: -72 2034 Natural increase: -70 2033 Natural increase: -66 2032 Natural increase: -60 2031 Natural increase: -47 2030 Natural increase: -37 2029 Natural increase: -24 2028 Natural increase: -9 2027 Natural increase: 8 2026 Natural increase: 30 2025 Natural increase: 53 2024 Natural increase: 76 2023 Natural increase: 99 2022 Natural increase: 113 2021 Natural increase: 129 2020 Natural increase: 140 2019 Natural increase: 153 2018 Natural increase: 153 2017 Natural increase: 155 2036 Total deaths: 1,896 2035 Total deaths: 1,884 2034 Total deaths: 1,869 2033 Total deaths: 1,852 2032 Total deaths: 1,835 2031 Total deaths: 1,813 2030 Total deaths: 1,794 2029 Total deaths: 1,775 2028 Total deaths: 1,753 2027 Total deaths: 1,733 2026 Total deaths: 1,710 2025 Total deaths: 1,688 2024 Total deaths: 1,669 2023 Total deaths: 1,649 2022 Total deaths: 1,637 2021 Total deaths: 1,621 2020 Total deaths: 1,605 2019 Total deaths: 1,584 2018 Total deaths: 1,570 2017 Total deaths: 1,550 2036 Total births: 1,825 2035 Total births: 1,812 2034 Total births: 1,799 2033 Total births: 1,787 2032 Total births: 1,776 2031 Total births: 1,766 2030 Total births: 1,757 2029 Total births: 1,750 2028 Total births: 1,744 2027 Total births: 1,741 2026 Total births: 1,740 2025 Total births: 1,741 2024 Total births: 1,744 2023 Total births: 1,748 2022 Total births: 1,751 2021 Total births: 1,750 2020 Total births: 1,745 2019 Total births: 1,737 2018 Total births: 1,723 2017 Total births: 1,705 2036 Natural increase: -71 2035 Natural increase: -72 2034 Natural increase: -70 2033 Natural increase: -66 2032 Natural increase: -60 2031 Natural increase: -47 2030 Natural increase: -37 2029 Natural increase: -24 2028 Natural increase: -9 2027 Natural increase: 8 2026 Natural increase: 30 2025 Natural increase: 53 2024 Natural increase: 76 2023 Natural increase: 99 2022 Natural increase: 113 2021 Natural increase: 129 2020 Natural increase: 140 2019 Natural increase: 153 2018 Natural increase: 153 2017 Natural increase: 155 2036 Total deaths: 1,896 2035 Total deaths: 1,884 2034 Total deaths: 1,869 2033 Total deaths: 1,852 2032 Total deaths: 1,835 2031 Total deaths: 1,813 2030 Total deaths: 1,794 2029 Total deaths: 1,775 2028 Total deaths: 1,753 2027 Total deaths: 1,733 2026 Total deaths: 1,710 2025 Total deaths: 1,688 2024 Total deaths: 1,669 2023 Total deaths: 1,649 2022 Total deaths: 1,637 2021 Total deaths: 1,621 2020 Total deaths: 1,605 2019 Total deaths: 1,584 2018 Total deaths: 1,570 2017 Total deaths: 1,550 2036 Total births: 1,825 2035 Total births: 1,812 2034 Total births: 1,799 2033 Total births: 1,787 2032 Total births: 1,776 2031 Total births: 1,766 2030 Total births: 1,757 2029 Total births: 1,750 2028 Total births: 1,744 2027 Total births: 1,741 2026 Total births: 1,740 2025 Total births: 1,741 2024 Total births: 1,744 2023 Total births: 1,748 2022 Total births: 1,751 2021 Total births: 1,750 2020 Total births: 1,745 2019 Total births: 1,737 2018 Total births: 1,723 2017 Total births: 1,705
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
Forecast in, out and net migration
Forecast in, out and net migration 2036 Total net migration: 1,092 2035 Total net migration: 1,084 2034 Total net migration: 1,055 2033 Total net migration: 1,013 2032 Total net migration: 944 2031 Total net migration: 915 2030 Total net migration: 874 2029 Total net migration: 839 2028 Total net migration: 826 2027 Total net migration: 724 2026 Total net migration: 673 2025 Total net migration: 618 2024 Total net migration: 631 2023 Total net migration: 680 2022 Total net migration: 743 2021 Total net migration: 910 2020 Total net migration: 1,149 2019 Total net migration: 1,234 2018 Total net migration: 1,503 2017 Total net migration: 1,573 2036 Total out migration: 13,045 2035 Total out migration: 12,970 2034 Total out migration: 12,893 2033 Total out migration: 12,822 2032 Total out migration: 12,756 2031 Total out migration: 12,687 2030 Total out migration: 12,624 2029 Total out migration: 12,573 2028 Total out migration: 12,516 2027 Total out migration: 12,470 2026 Total out migration: 12,432 2025 Total out migration: 12,405 2024 Total out migration: 12,378 2023 Total out migration: 12,344 2022 Total out migration: 12,357 2021 Total out migration: 12,313 2020 Total out migration: 12,238 2019 Total out migration: 12,156 2018 Total out migration: 12,038 2017 Total out migration: 11,911 2036 Total in migration: 14,137 2035 Total in migration: 14,054 2034 Total in migration: 13,948 2033 Total in migration: 13,836 2032 Total in migration: 13,700 2031 Total in migration: 13,602 2030 Total in migration: 13,498 2029 Total in migration: 13,413 2028 Total in migration: 13,342 2027 Total in migration: 13,193 2026 Total in migration: 13,105 2025 Total in migration: 13,023 2024 Total in migration: 13,009 2023 Total in migration: 13,024 2022 Total in migration: 13,100 2021 Total in migration: 13,223 2020 Total in migration: 13,387 2019 Total in migration: 13,390 2018 Total in migration: 13,541 2017 Total in migration: 13,484 2036 Total net migration: 1,092 2035 Total net migration: 1,084 2034 Total net migration: 1,055 2033 Total net migration: 1,013 2032 Total net migration: 944 2031 Total net migration: 915 2030 Total net migration: 874 2029 Total net migration: 839 2028 Total net migration: 826 2027 Total net migration: 724 2026 Total net migration: 673 2025 Total net migration: 618 2024 Total net migration: 631 2023 Total net migration: 680 2022 Total net migration: 743 2021 Total net migration: 910 2020 Total net migration: 1,149 2019 Total net migration: 1,234 2018 Total net migration: 1,503 2017 Total net migration: 1,573 2036 Total out migration: 13,045 2035 Total out migration: 12,970 2034 Total out migration: 12,893 2033 Total out migration: 12,822 2032 Total out migration: 12,756 2031 Total out migration: 12,687 2030 Total out migration: 12,624 2029 Total out migration: 12,573 2028 Total out migration: 12,516 2027 Total out migration: 12,470 2026 Total out migration: 12,432 2025 Total out migration: 12,405 2024 Total out migration: 12,378 2023 Total out migration: 12,344 2022 Total out migration: 12,357 2021 Total out migration: 12,313 2020 Total out migration: 12,238 2019 Total out migration: 12,156 2018 Total out migration: 12,038 2017 Total out migration: 11,911 2036 Total in migration: 14,137 2035 Total in migration: 14,054 2034 Total in migration: 13,948 2033 Total in migration: 13,836 2032 Total in migration: 13,700 2031 Total in migration: 13,602 2030 Total in migration: 13,498 2029 Total in migration: 13,413 2028 Total in migration: 13,342 2027 Total in migration: 13,193 2026 Total in migration: 13,105 2025 Total in migration: 13,023 2024 Total in migration: 13,009 2023 Total in migration: 13,024 2022 Total in migration: 13,100 2021 Total in migration: 13,223 2020 Total in migration: 13,387 2019 Total in migration: 13,390 2018 Total in migration: 13,541 2017 Total in migration: 13,484
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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