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Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast

Mornington Peninsula Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Mornington Peninsula Shire indicate a 3.9% increase in population under working age, a 19.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Mornington Peninsula Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Mornington Peninsula Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 48,7775.59,2215.49,6645.3+887
5 to 910,1196.310,1215.910,5355.8+416
10 to 149,5726.010,2245.910,7235.9+1,151
15 to 199,3395.89,9865.810,1985.6+859
20 to 248,1245.18,1054.78,5074.7+383
25 to 297,4024.67,1404.27,5324.2+130
30 to 347,5764.77,8494.68,1274.5+551
35 to 398,2785.19,5565.69,8855.5+1,607
40 to 4410,5036.510,6436.211,1506.2+647
45 to 4911,1696.910,4066.011,2066.2+37
50 to 5410,6296.610,7126.210,9906.1+361
55 to 5910,7136.711,2046.510,9956.1+282
60 to 6410,6216.611,5586.711,8296.5+1,208
65 to 6911,4037.111,7656.812,3736.8+970
70 to 749,5705.910,7756.311,6896.5+2,119
75 to 797,1524.49,7565.710,2525.7+3,100
80 to 844,8993.06,9414.07,9354.4+3,036
85 and over5,0163.16,0753.57,5054.1+2,489
Total persons160,862100.0172,036100.0181,097100.0+20,235
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Mornington Peninsula Shire was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 2,604 and account for 5.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 11,765 persons.

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