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Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Mornington Peninsula Shire indicate a 3.9% increase in population under working age, a 19.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.0% increase in population of working age.
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.
The forecast age groups of Mornington Peninsula Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.
|Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups|
|Mornington Peninsula Shire - Total persons||2016||2026||2036||Change between 2016 and 2036|
|Age group (years)||Number||%||Number||%||Number||%||Number|
|0 to 4||8,777||5.5||9,221||5.4||9,664||5.3||+887|
|5 to 9||10,119||6.3||10,121||5.9||10,535||5.8||+416|
|10 to 14||9,572||6.0||10,224||5.9||10,723||5.9||+1,151|
|15 to 19||9,339||5.8||9,986||5.8||10,198||5.6||+859|
|20 to 24||8,124||5.1||8,105||4.7||8,507||4.7||+383|
|25 to 29||7,402||4.6||7,140||4.2||7,532||4.2||+130|
|30 to 34||7,576||4.7||7,849||4.6||8,127||4.5||+551|
|35 to 39||8,278||5.1||9,556||5.6||9,885||5.5||+1,607|
|40 to 44||10,503||6.5||10,643||6.2||11,150||6.2||+647|
|45 to 49||11,169||6.9||10,406||6.0||11,206||6.2||+37|
|50 to 54||10,629||6.6||10,712||6.2||10,990||6.1||+361|
|55 to 59||10,713||6.7||11,204||6.5||10,995||6.1||+282|
|60 to 64||10,621||6.6||11,558||6.7||11,829||6.5||+1,208|
|65 to 69||11,403||7.1||11,765||6.8||12,373||6.8||+970|
|70 to 74||9,570||5.9||10,775||6.3||11,689||6.5||+2,119|
|75 to 79||7,152||4.4||9,756||5.7||10,252||5.7||+3,100|
|80 to 84||4,899||3.0||6,941||4.0||7,935||4.4||+3,036|
|85 and over||5,016||3.1||6,075||3.5||7,505||4.1||+2,489|
In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Mornington Peninsula Shire was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 7.1% of the total persons.
The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 2,604 and account for 5.7% of the total persons.
The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 11,765 persons.
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