Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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Bittern - Crib Point

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Bittern - Crib Point will increase by an average of 36 dwellings per annum to 3,557 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Mornington Peninsula Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

Dwelling counts for the period 2011 to 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • Small unit development - 108 dwellings (2012-2018)
  • 73-75 Hendersons Road - 14 dwellings (2016-2017)
  • 2390 Frankston-Flinders Road - 20 dwellings (2018-2022)
  • 131 Hendersons Road - 24 dwellings (2020-2024)
  • Small sites - 10 dwellings
  • Low-moderate level of vacant lot development (2-12 dwellings per annum)
  • Low-high level of infill development (10-25 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 3,557 2035 Total dwellings: 3,520 2034 Total dwellings: 3,483 2033 Total dwellings: 3,446 2032 Total dwellings: 3,409 2031 Total dwellings: 3,373 2030 Total dwellings: 3,338 2029 Total dwellings: 3,303 2028 Total dwellings: 3,268 2027 Total dwellings: 3,233 2026 Total dwellings: 3,201 2025 Total dwellings: 3,171 2024 Total dwellings: 3,141 2023 Total dwellings: 3,107 2022 Total dwellings: 3,072 2021 Total dwellings: 3,033 2020 Total dwellings: 2,994 2019 Total dwellings: 2,955 2018 Total dwellings: 2,923 2017 Total dwellings: 2,885 2036 Total dwellings: 3,557 2035 Total dwellings: 3,520 2034 Total dwellings: 3,483 2033 Total dwellings: 3,446 2032 Total dwellings: 3,409 2031 Total dwellings: 3,373 2030 Total dwellings: 3,338 2029 Total dwellings: 3,303 2028 Total dwellings: 3,268 2027 Total dwellings: 3,233 2026 Total dwellings: 3,201 2025 Total dwellings: 3,171 2024 Total dwellings: 3,141 2023 Total dwellings: 3,107 2022 Total dwellings: 3,072 2021 Total dwellings: 3,033 2020 Total dwellings: 2,994 2019 Total dwellings: 2,955 2018 Total dwellings: 2,923 2017 Total dwellings: 2,885 2036 Forecast development: 37 2035 Forecast development: 37 2034 Forecast development: 37 2033 Forecast development: 37 2032 Forecast development: 36 2031 Forecast development: 35 2030 Forecast development: 35 2029 Forecast development: 35 2028 Forecast development: 35 2027 Forecast development: 32 2026 Forecast development: 30 2025 Forecast development: 30 2024 Forecast development: 34 2023 Forecast development: 35 2022 Forecast development: 39 2021 Forecast development: 39 2020 Forecast development: 39 2019 Forecast development: 32 2018 Forecast development: 38 2017 Forecast development: 46
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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