Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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Somerville

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Somerville will increase by an average of 22 dwellings per annum to 4,838 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Mornington Peninsula Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

Dwelling counts for the period 2011 to 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • Eramosa Road / Graf Road - 40 dwellings (2015-2017)
  • Melrose Terrace - 131 dwellings (2015-2020)
  • Coolart Road / Eramosa Road - 20 dwellings (2020-2024)
  • Small sites - 9 dwellings
  • Low level of vacant lot development (0-2 dwellings per annum)
  • Low-moderate level of infill development (4-16 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 4,838 2035 Total dwellings: 4,822 2034 Total dwellings: 4,806 2033 Total dwellings: 4,790 2032 Total dwellings: 4,774 2031 Total dwellings: 4,758 2030 Total dwellings: 4,742 2029 Total dwellings: 4,726 2028 Total dwellings: 4,710 2027 Total dwellings: 4,694 2026 Total dwellings: 4,678 2025 Total dwellings: 4,662 2024 Total dwellings: 4,646 2023 Total dwellings: 4,629 2022 Total dwellings: 4,611 2021 Total dwellings: 4,589 2020 Total dwellings: 4,567 2019 Total dwellings: 4,529 2018 Total dwellings: 4,487 2017 Total dwellings: 4,448 2036 Total dwellings: 4,838 2035 Total dwellings: 4,822 2034 Total dwellings: 4,806 2033 Total dwellings: 4,790 2032 Total dwellings: 4,774 2031 Total dwellings: 4,758 2030 Total dwellings: 4,742 2029 Total dwellings: 4,726 2028 Total dwellings: 4,710 2027 Total dwellings: 4,694 2026 Total dwellings: 4,678 2025 Total dwellings: 4,662 2024 Total dwellings: 4,646 2023 Total dwellings: 4,629 2022 Total dwellings: 4,611 2021 Total dwellings: 4,589 2020 Total dwellings: 4,567 2019 Total dwellings: 4,529 2018 Total dwellings: 4,487 2017 Total dwellings: 4,448 2036 Forecast development: 16 2035 Forecast development: 16 2034 Forecast development: 16 2033 Forecast development: 16 2032 Forecast development: 16 2031 Forecast development: 16 2030 Forecast development: 16 2029 Forecast development: 16 2028 Forecast development: 16 2027 Forecast development: 16 2026 Forecast development: 16 2025 Forecast development: 16 2024 Forecast development: 17 2023 Forecast development: 18 2022 Forecast development: 22 2021 Forecast development: 22 2020 Forecast development: 38 2019 Forecast development: 42 2018 Forecast development: 39 2017 Forecast development: 48
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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