Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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Mornington

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Mornington will increase by an average of 77 dwellings per annum to 13,023 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Mornington Peninsula Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

Dwelling counts for the period 2011 to 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • 17-31 Tanti Avenue - 20 dwellings (2012-2017)
  • 431 Racecourse Road - 278 dwellings (2012-2024)
  • 141-173 Bungower Road - 37 dwellings (2014-2021)
  • 10 Maxwell Street - 10 dwellings (2015)
  • 2 Philip Street - 45 dwellings (2015-2018)
  • 160 Mornington-Tyabb Road - 17 dwellings (2016)
  • Bungower Road - 37 dwellings (2016-2018)
  • 16-20 Main Street - 18 dwellings (2017)
  • 71-77 Barkly Street - 48 dwellings (2017-2018)
  • 9-13 Main Street - 20 dwellings (2017-2018)
  • Woodbyne Cres / Albany Way - 11 dwellings (2019-2021)
  • 784-785 Esplanade Avenue - 13 dwellings (2020-2021)
  • Cook street and Drake Street - 22 dwellings (2020-2024)
  • Small sites - 6 dwellings
  • Low-moderate level of vacant lot development (10-15 dwellings per annum)
  • High level of infill development (27-55 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 13,023 2035 Total dwellings: 12,953 2034 Total dwellings: 12,883 2033 Total dwellings: 12,813 2032 Total dwellings: 12,743 2031 Total dwellings: 12,674 2030 Total dwellings: 12,609 2029 Total dwellings: 12,544 2028 Total dwellings: 12,479 2027 Total dwellings: 12,414 2026 Total dwellings: 12,349 2025 Total dwellings: 12,294 2024 Total dwellings: 12,239 2023 Total dwellings: 12,179 2022 Total dwellings: 12,113 2021 Total dwellings: 12,042 2020 Total dwellings: 11,953 2019 Total dwellings: 11,853 2018 Total dwellings: 11,768 2017 Total dwellings: 11,636 2036 Total dwellings: 13,023 2035 Total dwellings: 12,953 2034 Total dwellings: 12,883 2033 Total dwellings: 12,813 2032 Total dwellings: 12,743 2031 Total dwellings: 12,674 2030 Total dwellings: 12,609 2029 Total dwellings: 12,544 2028 Total dwellings: 12,479 2027 Total dwellings: 12,414 2026 Total dwellings: 12,349 2025 Total dwellings: 12,294 2024 Total dwellings: 12,239 2023 Total dwellings: 12,179 2022 Total dwellings: 12,113 2021 Total dwellings: 12,042 2020 Total dwellings: 11,953 2019 Total dwellings: 11,853 2018 Total dwellings: 11,768 2017 Total dwellings: 11,636 2036 Forecast development: 70 2035 Forecast development: 70 2034 Forecast development: 70 2033 Forecast development: 70 2032 Forecast development: 69 2031 Forecast development: 65 2030 Forecast development: 65 2029 Forecast development: 65 2028 Forecast development: 65 2027 Forecast development: 65 2026 Forecast development: 55 2025 Forecast development: 55 2024 Forecast development: 60 2023 Forecast development: 66 2022 Forecast development: 71 2021 Forecast development: 89 2020 Forecast development: 100 2019 Forecast development: 85 2018 Forecast development: 132 2017 Forecast development: 152
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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