Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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Dromana - Safety Beach

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Dromana - Safety Beach will increase by an average of 116 dwellings per annum to 10,173 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Mornington Peninsula Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

Dwelling counts for the period 2011 to 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • Small unit development - 145 dwellings (2012-2017)
  • Rymer Avenue - remnant parcels - 39 dwellings (2012-2019)
  • Martha Cove development - 1,387 dwellings (2012-2025)
  • 52 Solander Street - 12 dwellings (2013)
  • 194 Dromana Parade - 14 dwellings (2014)
  • 71-73 Dromana Parade - 19 dwellings (2014)
  • 279 Point Nepean Road - 30 dwellings (2015)
  • 140 Country Club Drive - 40 dwellings (2015-2016)
  • 12 Walter Street - 30 dwellings (2015-2017)
  • 7 Nepean Highway - 13 dwellings (2016)
  • 299 Dromana Parade - 14 dwellings (2017)
  • Low Density residential parcels - 49 dwellings (2017-2027)
  • Small sites - 18 dwellings
  • Low-high level of vacant lot development (5-48 dwellings per annum)
  • Moderate-high level of infill development (15-59 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 10,173 2035 Total dwellings: 10,095 2034 Total dwellings: 10,017 2033 Total dwellings: 9,939 2032 Total dwellings: 9,861 2031 Total dwellings: 9,784 2030 Total dwellings: 9,709 2029 Total dwellings: 9,634 2028 Total dwellings: 9,559 2027 Total dwellings: 9,486 2026 Total dwellings: 9,411 2025 Total dwellings: 9,336 2024 Total dwellings: 9,258 2023 Total dwellings: 9,165 2022 Total dwellings: 9,062 2021 Total dwellings: 8,944 2020 Total dwellings: 8,805 2019 Total dwellings: 8,637 2018 Total dwellings: 8,409 2017 Total dwellings: 8,155 2036 Total dwellings: 10,173 2035 Total dwellings: 10,095 2034 Total dwellings: 10,017 2033 Total dwellings: 9,939 2032 Total dwellings: 9,861 2031 Total dwellings: 9,784 2030 Total dwellings: 9,709 2029 Total dwellings: 9,634 2028 Total dwellings: 9,559 2027 Total dwellings: 9,486 2026 Total dwellings: 9,411 2025 Total dwellings: 9,336 2024 Total dwellings: 9,258 2023 Total dwellings: 9,165 2022 Total dwellings: 9,062 2021 Total dwellings: 8,944 2020 Total dwellings: 8,805 2019 Total dwellings: 8,637 2018 Total dwellings: 8,409 2017 Total dwellings: 8,155 2036 Forecast development: 78 2035 Forecast development: 78 2034 Forecast development: 78 2033 Forecast development: 78 2032 Forecast development: 77 2031 Forecast development: 75 2030 Forecast development: 75 2029 Forecast development: 75 2028 Forecast development: 73 2027 Forecast development: 75 2026 Forecast development: 75 2025 Forecast development: 78 2024 Forecast development: 93 2023 Forecast development: 103 2022 Forecast development: 118 2021 Forecast development: 139 2020 Forecast development: 168 2019 Forecast development: 228 2018 Forecast development: 254 2017 Forecast development: 301
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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