Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast
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Balnarring - Balnarring Beach - Merricks - Merricks Beach - Somers

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Balnarring - Balnarring Beach - Merricks - Merricks Beach - Somers will increase by an average of 7 dwellings per annum to 3,082 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Mornington Peninsula Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

Dwelling counts for the period 2011 to 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • 29-51 Balnarring Road - 11 dwellings (2012-2017)
  • 17-29 Balnarring Road - 14 dwellings (2012-2017)
  • 141 Lord Somers Road - 16 dwellings (2018-2027)
  • Small sites - 6 dwellings
  • Low level of vacant lot development (1-5 dwellings per annum)
  • Low-moderate level of infill development (1-18 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 3,082 2035 Total dwellings: 3,075 2034 Total dwellings: 3,068 2033 Total dwellings: 3,061 2032 Total dwellings: 3,055 2031 Total dwellings: 3,049 2030 Total dwellings: 3,043 2029 Total dwellings: 3,037 2028 Total dwellings: 3,031 2027 Total dwellings: 3,025 2026 Total dwellings: 3,019 2025 Total dwellings: 3,013 2024 Total dwellings: 3,007 2023 Total dwellings: 3,001 2022 Total dwellings: 2,995 2021 Total dwellings: 2,989 2020 Total dwellings: 2,982 2019 Total dwellings: 2,975 2018 Total dwellings: 2,966 2017 Total dwellings: 2,959 2036 Total dwellings: 3,082 2035 Total dwellings: 3,075 2034 Total dwellings: 3,068 2033 Total dwellings: 3,061 2032 Total dwellings: 3,055 2031 Total dwellings: 3,049 2030 Total dwellings: 3,043 2029 Total dwellings: 3,037 2028 Total dwellings: 3,031 2027 Total dwellings: 3,025 2026 Total dwellings: 3,019 2025 Total dwellings: 3,013 2024 Total dwellings: 3,007 2023 Total dwellings: 3,001 2022 Total dwellings: 2,995 2021 Total dwellings: 2,989 2020 Total dwellings: 2,982 2019 Total dwellings: 2,975 2018 Total dwellings: 2,966 2017 Total dwellings: 2,959 2036 Forecast development: 7 2035 Forecast development: 7 2034 Forecast development: 7 2033 Forecast development: 6 2032 Forecast development: 6 2031 Forecast development: 6 2030 Forecast development: 6 2029 Forecast development: 6 2028 Forecast development: 6 2027 Forecast development: 6 2026 Forecast development: 6 2025 Forecast development: 6 2024 Forecast development: 6 2023 Forecast development: 6 2022 Forecast development: 6 2021 Forecast development: 7 2020 Forecast development: 7 2019 Forecast development: 9 2018 Forecast development: 7 2017 Forecast development: 10
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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