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Kempsey ShirePopulation forecast

Kempsey Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Kempsey Shire indicate a 9.2% increase in population under working age, a 23.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kempsey Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kempsey Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,6735.71,7665.61,9235.6+250
5 to 91,8126.21,9726.32,1266.2+315
10 to 141,7576.01,9886.42,1606.3+403
15 to 191,7015.81,6985.41,8685.5+167
20 to 241,4294.91,3634.41,5184.4+88
25 to 291,4915.11,3924.41,4584.3-33
30 to 341,3664.61,3884.41,4794.3+113
35 to 391,3694.61,5394.91,6474.8+278
40 to 441,6015.41,6265.21,7725.2+171
45 to 491,7175.81,7075.51,9055.6+189
50 to 542,0396.91,9506.22,0896.1+50
55 to 592,3628.02,1246.82,2626.6-101
60 to 642,3417.92,3607.52,4447.2+103
65 to 692,3187.92,4117.72,3957.0+77
70 to 741,6405.62,1076.72,2546.6+613
75 to 791,2024.11,7895.71,9895.8+787
80 to 847702.61,1443.71,5254.5+755
85 and over8693.09713.11,3353.9+466
Total persons29,456100.031,296100.034,148100.0+4,693
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Kempsey Shire was ages 55 to 59, which accounted for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 587 and account for 5.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 2,411 persons.

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