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Kempsey ShirePopulation forecast

Kempsey Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Kempsey Shire indicate a 6.2% increase in population under working age, a 7.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 2.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kempsey Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kempsey Shire - Total persons202120262036Change between 2021 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,6165.21,9246.02,1586.1+543
5 to 91,7175.61,7655.52,0875.9+370
10 to 141,9056.21,8755.82,1136.0+208
15 to 191,7245.61,8345.71,9175.4+193
20 to 241,4884.81,6555.11,7725.0+283
25 to 291,5375.01,5814.91,7845.1+247
30 to 341,6115.21,6915.31,8615.3+251
35 to 391,5224.91,6935.31,8605.3+338
40 to 441,5345.01,6195.01,8485.2+314
45 to 491,6725.41,6905.31,9155.4+243
50 to 541,9006.21,8725.82,0205.7+120
55 to 592,2587.32,1216.62,2346.3-24
60 to 642,4988.12,4337.62,4446.9-54
65 to 692,4077.82,5157.82,5137.1+106
70 to 742,2307.22,2296.92,4006.8+170
75 to 791,4464.71,8205.71,9935.6+547
80 to 849273.01,0603.31,3893.9+462
85 and over8222.77882.51,0012.8+179
Total persons30,813100.032,164100.035,310100.0+4,497
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Kempsey Shire was ages 60 to 64, which accounted for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 373 and account for 5.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 2,515 persons.

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