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Kempsey ShirePopulation forecast

Kempsey Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Kempsey Shire indicate a 11.6% increase in males under working age, a 24.1% increase in males of retirement age, and a 2.6% decrease in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Kempsey Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kempsey Shire - Total males201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 48365.69376.01,0165.9+180
5 to 99006.11,0066.41,0806.3+180
10 to 149076.11,0076.41,1136.5+206
15 to 198996.18585.59525.6+53
20 to 247725.26924.47594.4-13
25 to 297895.37014.57194.2-70
30 to 346934.76684.36954.1+2
35 to 396674.57494.87894.6+123
40 to 448065.48115.28725.1+66
45 to 498735.98525.49475.5+74
50 to 549646.59696.21,0316.0+68
55 to 591,1717.91,0726.81,1346.6-37
60 to 641,1607.81,1947.61,2807.5+121
65 to 691,2208.21,2487.91,2677.4+47
70 to 748475.71,0726.81,1756.9+328
75 to 796104.19115.81,0145.9+404
80 to 843742.55503.57364.3+362
85 and over3222.24042.65653.3+243
Total persons14,808100.015,700100.017,144100.0+2,336
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for males in Kempsey Shire was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 8.2% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 301 and account for 5.8% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 1,248 males.

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