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Murray Shire CouncilPopulation forecast

Stake Hill - Barragup - Nambeelup

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Stake Hill - Barragup - Nambeelup indicate a 15.2% increase in population under working age, a 55.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 6.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Stake Hill - Barragup - Nambeelup is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Stake Hill - Barragup - Nambeelup - Total persons201620312051Change between 2016 and 2051
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4905.01085.21235.2+33
5 to 91317.31487.21687.1+38
10 to 141538.51758.51998.4+47
15 to 191538.51587.71837.7+30
20 to 241116.21125.41285.4+17
25 to 29703.9803.9913.8+21
30 to 34583.2793.8893.8+31
35 to 39935.21025.01154.9+22
40 to 441629.01396.81596.7-3
45 to 491438.01547.51797.5+36
50 to 541649.11668.01877.9+23
55 to 591357.51648.01697.1+35
60 to 641106.11246.01426.0+31
65 to 69955.31105.31215.1+26
70 to 74583.2884.31064.5+48
75 to 79362.0643.1863.6+50
80 to 84261.5472.3652.7+38
85 and over110.6432.1652.7+54
Total persons1,799100.02,060100.02,377100.0+578
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2051, prepared by .id (informed decisions), October 2020.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Stake Hill - Barragup - Nambeelup was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 9.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 85 and over, which is expected to increase by 31 and account for 2.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 175 persons.

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