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City of DarebinPopulation forecast

Northcote

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Northcote indicate a 39.8% increase in males under working age, a 55.5% increase in males of retirement age, and a 16.1% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Darebin is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Northcote - Total males202120312041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 46014.91,0967.21,1697.0+568
5 to 96125.09126.01,0116.0+399
10 to 147245.97004.68885.3+164
15 to 196235.16994.68385.0+215
20 to 246655.51,0687.01,0786.4+413
25 to 291,1699.61,5009.91,5449.2+375
30 to 341,25910.31,4289.41,5559.3+297
35 to 391,0568.71,1637.71,2887.7+232
40 to 449087.51,0557.01,1396.8+231
45 to 499357.79606.31,0276.1+92
50 to 549047.48235.49265.5+22
55 to 596825.67775.18144.9+132
60 to 645724.77114.76794.1+107
65 to 694113.45523.66163.7+205
70 to 743482.95083.36083.6+260
75 to 792592.14392.95413.2+282
80 to 842231.83662.44592.7+236
85 and over2181.84042.75433.2+325
Total persons12,168100.015,160100.016,723100.0+4,555
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for males in Northcote was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 10.3% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 495 and account for 7.2% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2031 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 1,500 males.

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