Powered by .id (informed decisions) for City of Casey
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LEARN MORE ABOUT .idBetween 2021 and 2036, the age structure forecasts for Narre Warren South indicate a 2.6% decrease in population under working age, a 72.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.9% decrease in population of working age.
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.
The forecast age groups of the City of Casey is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.
| Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narre Warren South - Total persons | 2021 | 2036 | 2046 | Change between 2021 and 2046 | |||
| Age group (years) | Number | % | Number | % | Number | % | Number |
| 0 to 4 | 1,930 | 6.2 | 2,067 | 6.4 | 2,100 | 6.3 | +170 |
| 5 to 9 | 2,282 | 7.3 | 2,255 | 7.0 | 2,296 | 6.9 | +14 |
| 10 to 14 | 2,763 | 8.8 | 2,473 | 7.7 | 2,523 | 7.6 | -240 |
| 15 to 19 | 2,759 | 8.8 | 2,535 | 7.9 | 2,609 | 7.8 | -149 |
| 20 to 24 | 2,545 | 8.1 | 2,392 | 7.4 | 2,439 | 7.3 | -106 |
| 25 to 29 | 1,969 | 6.3 | 2,001 | 6.2 | 2,022 | 6.1 | +53 |
| 30 to 34 | 1,822 | 5.8 | 1,958 | 6.1 | 1,997 | 6.0 | +175 |
| 35 to 39 | 2,072 | 6.6 | 2,116 | 6.6 | 2,161 | 6.5 | +89 |
| 40 to 44 | 2,238 | 7.2 | 2,133 | 6.6 | 2,182 | 6.6 | -56 |
| 45 to 49 | 2,462 | 7.9 | 2,083 | 6.5 | 2,145 | 6.4 | -317 |
| 50 to 54 | 2,356 | 7.5 | 2,004 | 6.2 | 2,042 | 6.1 | -314 |
| 55 to 59 | 1,884 | 6.0 | 1,840 | 5.7 | 1,823 | 5.5 | -61 |
| 60 to 64 | 1,467 | 4.7 | 1,660 | 5.2 | 1,542 | 4.6 | +75 |
| 65 to 69 | 1,008 | 3.2 | 1,416 | 4.4 | 1,320 | 4.0 | +313 |
| 70 to 74 | 731 | 2.3 | 1,110 | 3.5 | 1,218 | 3.7 | +488 |
| 75 to 79 | 495 | 1.6 | 906 | 2.8 | 1,119 | 3.4 | +624 |
| 80 to 84 | 267 | 0.9 | 635 | 2.0 | 886 | 2.7 | +619 |
| 85 and over | 188 | 0.6 | 568 | 1.8 | 854 | 2.6 | +667 |
| Total persons | 31,236 | 100.0 | 32,152 | 100.0 | 33,279 | 100.0 | +2,043 |
Key findings
In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Narre Warren South was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 8.8% of the total persons.
The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2036 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 411 and account for 2.8% of the total persons.
The largest 5 year age group in 2036 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 2,535 persons.
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