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City of CaseyPopulation forecast

City of Casey

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for the City of Casey indicate a 60.9% increase in population under working age, a 91.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 45.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Casey is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Casey - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 425,6418.238,6148.042,1667.7+16,525
5 to 924,5097.839,8158.243,3087.9+18,799
10 to 1421,4706.836,8247.640,8767.4+19,406
15 to 1921,8387.032,6696.837,2506.8+15,412
20 to 2422,5667.230,2296.334,5496.3+11,983
25 to 2922,6447.232,7026.836,7006.7+14,056
30 to 3425,4788.137,5167.841,2117.5+15,733
35 to 3923,6777.637,9417.941,3797.5+17,702
40 to 4422,7167.234,8467.238,6967.0+15,980
45 to 4921,3706.830,9676.435,3866.4+14,016
50 to 5419,3916.226,4395.531,7005.8+12,309
55 to 5917,1365.523,2524.827,9485.1+10,812
60 to 6413,7054.420,6214.323,8514.3+10,146
65 to 6911,0743.517,9783.720,5003.7+9,426
70 to 747,7152.515,2103.217,7273.2+10,012
75 to 795,4701.711,6372.414,8762.7+9,406
80 to 843,6281.28,0261.711,1012.0+7,473
85 and over3,4931.17,3391.59,9651.8+6,472
Total persons313,521100.0482,626100.0549,190100.0+235,669
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in the City of Casey was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 10 to 14, which is expected to increase by 15,354 and account for 7.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 39,815 persons.

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