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Narre Warren South

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Narre Warren South indicate a 19.7% decrease in population under working age, a 99.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 12.8% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Casey is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Narre Warren South - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42,2937.21,9006.41,8636.4-431
5 to 92,8488.92,1747.32,1267.3-722
10 to 142,8078.82,3067.82,2217.6-586
15 to 192,8168.82,3147.82,1937.5-623
20 to 242,4427.72,0757.01,9406.6-502
25 to 291,7855.61,6565.61,6105.5-175
30 to 342,0126.31,6935.71,6775.7-335
35 to 392,3647.41,9116.41,8866.4-479
40 to 442,7298.61,9936.71,9556.7-774
45 to 492,6118.21,9446.51,8596.4-753
50 to 542,0456.41,8156.11,6675.7-378
55 to 591,6875.31,7906.01,5285.2-159
60 to 641,1633.71,6815.71,4555.0+292
65 to 699002.81,4154.81,4244.9+524
70 to 746302.01,2004.01,3304.5+701
75 to 793581.18462.81,1133.8+755
80 to 842090.75992.08602.9+651
85 and over1390.43931.35571.9+418
Total persons31,837100.029,704100.029,262100.0-2,576

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 557 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 860 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 1,113 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 1,330 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 1,424 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 1,455 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 1,528 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 1,667 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 1,859 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 1,955 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 1,886 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 1,677 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 1,610 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 1,940 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 2,193 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 2,221 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 2,126 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 1,863 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2031: 393 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2031: 599 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2031: 846 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2031: 1,200 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2031: 1,415 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2031: 1,681 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2031: 1,790 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2031: 1,815 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2031: 1,944 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2031: 1,993 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2031: 1,911 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2031: 1,693 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2031: 1,656 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2031: 2,075 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2031: 2,314 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2031: 2,306 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2031: 2,174 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2031: 1,900 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 139 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 209 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 358 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 630 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 900 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 1,163 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 1,687 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 2,045 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 2,611 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 2,729 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 2,364 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 2,012 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 1,785 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 2,442 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 2,816 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 2,807 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 2,848 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 2,293
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2031 to 2041: 163 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2031 to 2041: 261 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2031 to 2041: 267 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2031 to 2041: 130 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2031 to 2041: 10 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2031 to 2041: -226 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2031 to 2041: -262 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2031 to 2041: -149 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2031 to 2041: -85 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2031 to 2041: -38 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2031 to 2041: -25 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2031 to 2041: -17 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2031 to 2041: -46 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2031 to 2041: -136 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2031 to 2041: -121 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2031 to 2041: -86 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2031 to 2041: -47 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2031 to 2041: -37 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2031: 254 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2031: 390 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2031: 488 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2031: 570 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2031: 515 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2031: 518 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2031: 103 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2031: -229 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2031: -667 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2031: -736 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2031: -454 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2031: -319 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2031: -128 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2031: -366 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2031: -502 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2031: -500 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2031: -674 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2031: -394
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Narre Warren South was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 8.9% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 570 and account for 4.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 2,314 persons.

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