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City of NewcastlePopulation forecast

City of Newcastle

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in City of Newcastle is forecast to grow from 74,344 in 2021 to 89,364 in 2041, with the average household size falling from 2.35 to 2.33 by 2041.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in the City of Newcastle. The period 2021 to 2031, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
City of NewcastleForecast year
Summary20212026203120362041
Population169,340180,021187,299193,956201,113
Change in population (5yrs)--10,6827,2776,6577,157
Average annual change--1.23%0.80%0.70%0.73%
Households69,80674,03677,51080,75983,998
Average household size2.352.362.352.342.33
Population in non private dwellings5,2175,2425,2675,2925,342
Dwellings74,34478,64382,35085,86489,364
Dwelling occupancy rate93.9094.1494.1294.0594.00
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), March 2024.

Key findings

In 2021, the total population of City of Newcastle was estimated to be 169,340 people. It is expected to increase by over 17,959 people to 187,299 by 2031, at an average annual growth rate of 1.01%. This is based on an increase of over 7,704 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household remaining stable from 2.35 to 2.35 by 2031.

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