City of NewcastlePopulation forecast
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City of Newcastle

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for the City of Newcastle indicate a 10.1% increase in population under working age, a 18.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 11.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Newcastle is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Newcastle - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 9,8066.110,7145.911,7255.8+1,919
5 to 9 9,3305.810,0165.511,0115.4+1,681
10 to 14 8,3615.29,5565.310,4565.2+2,095
15 to 19 9,3715.811,6086.412,5276.2+3,156
20 to 24 14,7589.215,5918.616,9248.4+2,165
25 to 29 13,5728.414,9218.316,5188.2+2,946
30 to 34 11,9607.413,8647.715,0557.5+3,094
35 to 39 10,2346.412,3856.913,6746.8+3,440
40 to 44 10,4306.511,6216.412,9556.4+2,525
45 to 49 10,0496.210,9276.112,6036.2+2,554
50 to 54 9,9976.210,7055.912,0546.0+2,058
55 to 59 9,8906.110,0435.611,3735.6+1,483
60 to 64 8,4915.39,4545.210,4215.2+1,931
65 to 69 7,3144.58,8244.99,6644.8+2,351
70 to 74 5,6473.57,2224.08,4384.2+2,791
75 to 79 4,3942.75,4653.06,8563.4+2,462
80 to 84 3,2722.03,6432.04,9642.5+1,692
85 and over4,0462.54,0122.24,8322.4+787
Total persons160,919100.0180,573100.0202,049100.0+41,130

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 4,832 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 4,964 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 6,856 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 8,438 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 9,664 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 10,421 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 11,373 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 12,054 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 12,603 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 12,955 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 13,674 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 15,055 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 16,518 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 16,924 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 12,527 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 10,456 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 11,011 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 11,725 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 4,012 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 3,643 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 5,465 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 7,222 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 8,824 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 9,454 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 10,043 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 10,705 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 10,927 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 11,621 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 12,385 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 13,864 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 14,921 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 15,591 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 11,608 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 9,556 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 10,016 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 10,714 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 4,046 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 3,272 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 4,394 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 5,647 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 7,314 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 8,491 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 9,890 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 9,997 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 10,049 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 10,430 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 10,234 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 11,960 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 13,572 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 14,758 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 9,371 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 8,361 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 9,330 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 9,806
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 820 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 1,320 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 1,391 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 1,216 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 841 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 967 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 1,329 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 1,349 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 1,675 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 1,334 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 1,288 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 1,191 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 1,597 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 1,333 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 919 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 900 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 994 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 1,011 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: -34 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 372 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 1,071 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 1,575 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 1,510 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 964 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 154 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 708 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 878 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 1,191 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 2,152 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 1,903 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 1,349 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 833 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 2,237 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 1,195 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 687 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 908
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in the City of Newcastle was ages 20 to 24 , which accounted for 9.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 15 to 19 , which is expected to increase by 2,237 and account for 6.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 20 to 24 years, with a total of 15,591 persons.

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