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City of BallaratPopulation forecast

City of Ballarat

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2032, the age structure forecasts for the City of Ballarat indicate a 31.6% increase in population under working age, a 44.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 28.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Ballarat is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Ballarat - Total persons201620322036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 47,0176.88,6506.49,2126.4+2,194
5 to 96,9246.79,0126.69,5406.6+2,616
10 to 146,2706.18,9446.69,4746.6+3,204
15 to 196,8186.69,5057.010,0096.9+3,190
20 to 248,0037.79,0726.79,5786.6+1,575
25 to 297,2107.08,3276.18,8316.1+1,621
30 to 346,5776.48,2196.08,6946.0+2,118
35 to 396,1606.08,6476.49,0646.3+2,904
40 to 446,4166.28,8516.59,3406.5+2,924
45 to 496,3786.28,7246.49,2696.4+2,891
50 to 546,5326.38,2576.18,8756.2+2,344
55 to 596,1796.07,6435.68,2035.7+2,024
60 to 645,7855.67,3005.47,6675.3+1,882
65 to 695,4135.26,6874.97,0614.9+1,648
70 to 744,0894.06,1144.56,4424.5+2,353
75 to 793,0563.05,1133.85,4513.8+2,396
80 to 842,2372.23,7902.84,0732.8+1,836
85 and over2,3412.33,0602.33,3252.3+985
Total persons103,405100.0135,914100.0144,108100.0+40,703
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in the City of Ballarat was ages 20 to 24, which accounted for 7.7% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2032 is forecast to be in ages 15 to 19, which is expected to increase by 2,687 and account for 7.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2032 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 9,505 persons.

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